Wall Street Recap: September 17-23, 2017

My full notes and analysis from the past week: September 17-23, 2017.  Periodicals covered in this Wall Street Recap include the WSJ, FT, NYT, and LA Times.

Investing in “Hot” Industries

“A lot of the places where the industries are doing a great job for the world, it’s very hard to make money out of it.  Because these wild enthusiasms come into it.  I don’t have a favorite industry.” – Charlie Munger

In the depths of the ocean, the glow from a small lure stands out among the darkness.  Fish from the surrounding waters swim toward the lure, tempted with the promise of a free lunch.  Little do they realize that they are swimming right into the jaws of an angler fish and their impending doom.

Likewise, “Hot” industries have historically acted like an angler fish, attracting investors who unwittingly swim into the jaws of poor investment returns.   Think back to the hot industries in history such as autos, airlines, and dotcoms.  The lure of those industries was typified by two compelling elements;

  1. A story of a world-changing product or service,
  2. Stellar growth wrapped around massive consumer demand.

Even though those industries had favorable long-term tail-winds, industry returns were abysmal and left thousands of bankrupt companies in its wake.  Why?

Two key reasons:

  1. Durable Moats are Illusive: “Hot” industries are defined by growth and rapid change.  This constantly evolving environment makes it incredibly hard to predict winners and losers.  The best product or service today may become obsolete tomorrow.  And a perceived competitive advantage today may vanish overnight.
  2. Wild Enthusiasm Attracts Too Much Capital: Wild enthusiasm attracts massive amounts of capital into hot industries.  This in turn increases competitive pressures and drives down the returns on invested capital.

Examples of “hot” industries from the last century:

Autos: “Autos had an enormous impact on America, but in the opposite direction on investors.”…”of the two thousand companies, as of a few years ago, only three car companies survived. And, at one time or the other, all three were selling for less than book value which is the amount of money that had been put into the companies and left there.” – Warren Buffett (link)

Airlines:  “Here’s a list of 129 airlines that in the past 20 years filed for bankruptcy. Continental was smart enough to make that list twice. As of 1992, in fact–though the picture would have improved since then–the money that had been made since the dawn of aviation by all of this country’s airline companies was zero. Absolutely zero.” – Warren Buffett

Nifty-Fifty Tech Stocks: A study found that the compounded annual return of the Nifty-Fifty portfolio from the peak in 1972 to 1998 was actually quite admirable, 12.5%.  The study also found that the Technology stocks in the Nifty-Fifty were significantly over-valued at the peak, and, as a result, performed poorly over the 26 year period.  On the other hand, predictable and “boring” consumer staples stocks like Gillette, Phillip Morris, and Coca-Cola all performed well, and, in hindsight, were still undervalued at the peak of the investment craze.  (link)

Mental Model: Viscosity

Viscosity: the state of being thick, sticky, and semifluid in consistency, due to internal friction.  Liquids show a reduction in viscosity (stickiness) with increasing temperature. (link)

Hot industries are like a fluid with low viscosity.  They are fluid, in a state of change, and have little resistance to deformation by (industry) stress.  All of which make them hard to predict.

Meanwhile, industries and businesses that are highly viscous are “sticky”.  Their future can be predicted with reasonable confidence.

As a fluid increases in temperature, its viscosity decreases (i.e. becomes less sticky).  Applying that model to investing, as an industry becomes “hot”, it becomes more fluid and less predictable.

This has implications regarding the usefulness of a company’s historical financials.  As an industry’s “temperature” increases (i.e. becomes more fluid and subject to change), a company’s historical figures may no longer be an accurate representation of its future performance.  Using a company’s historical financials in this new environment invites error and potential over-valuation.  (Or under-valuation if the reverse is true; low viscosity moving to high viscosity)

Investment Lessons:

Avoid “Hot” Industries: Subject to intense competition and an ever shifting environment, it is challenging if not impossible to predict winners and losers in a hot industry.

“We make no attempt to pick the few winners that will emerge from an ocean of unproven enterprises.  We’re not smart enough to do that, and we know it.” – Warren Buffett

Invest in Sticky “Predictable” Businesses: Investing in sticky businesses follows Buffett’s prescription of not fooling yourself and not losing money.

“…we try to apply Aesop’s 2,600-year-old equation to opportunities in which we have reasonable confidence as to how many birds are in the bush and when they will emerge.” – Warren Buffett

“Hot” Industries: In the News

Netflix, Tesla, and Blue Apron are the hottest companies in hottest industries.  Each one is contending with wild enthusiasm and a flood of investment capital.  Some of the most recent developments threatening these companies are listed below.

Netflix

Facebook

“Facebook Inc. is loosening its purse strings in its drive to become a major hub for video.  The social-media giant is willing to spend as much as $1 billion to cultivate original shows for its platform,” (link)

“It also signals Facebook’s readiness to spend more than before to become what Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg calls a ‘video-first’ platform.”

HBO, Amazon, Netflix, Facebook, and Apple are all “banking on video to capture the fleeting attention of users and seize billions of dollars in advertising that is expected to migrate from television to digital video.”

Apple

“Apple Inc. is preparing its own billion-dollar war chest for content.”

Disney

“For Netflix, Disney’s decision to hold on to rights to ‘Star Wars’ and Marvel movies will add to the pressure to create appealing original content of its own to replace some of the high-profile franchise films Netflix will lose starting in 2019.” (link)

“The big problem is not aggregate costs, but costs versus competitors. If your costs are out of line, you’re going to get killed eventually.” – Charlie Munger

Tesla

VW

” VW, the world’s biggest carmaker, says it will build 50 all-electric models by 2025 and electrify 300 models by 2030.”

The speed of the shift is remarkable…The switch is driven by policy: “European regulators were previously content to set environmental standards and let manufacturers decide how to meet them.  Since the emissions cheating scandal, they are quite reasonably inclined to be more prescriptive…This is prompting a rapid change in consumer behavior: few people will risk buying a car that may be of limited use within a decade.”

Mercedes, Smart, BMW

“Daimler boss Dieter Zetsche said the Mercedes owner’s ‘entire portfolio’ will be electrified by 2022.  The Smart brand will become fully electric by 2020, making it the first internal comustion engine marque to make the switch.”

“BMW told reporters at the show: ‘Our top priority now as a company is electric mobility.'”

Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi alliance

“The chairman and chief executive officer of the Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi alliance is pushing ambitious targets for the auto makers in an effort to leapfrog Silicon Valley and swipe market share, even as some of his biggest rivals look to scale back.” (link)

He is also planning 12 new electric cars, forays into robotaxi fleets and the debut of a fully autonomous car within six years.”

“With the explosion of technology that is coming, it is going to make it very difficult for smaller players to follow. Mr. Ghosn said.  “You’re going to have a premium for the large car manufacturers because we are the only one who are going to be able to invest in all the fields, all the products, all the markets, all the technology without making any shortcuts or without having any blind spot.”

Blue Apron

Albertsons

“Albertsons Cos. is buying the Plated meal-kit service, the first acquisition of a prepared-meals company by a national grocery chain as supermarkets scramble to keep shoppers coming to their stores.” (link)

Bob Miller, chief executive of Boise, Idaho-based Albertsons, said in an interview Wednesday: “We think there’s an opportunity to grow this thing tremendously,” adding that the supermarket will give Plated a “cost advantage” over other meal-kit companies by the scale of its food purchasing and network of 18 manufacturing plants.

“The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money.” – Warren Buffett

Psychology of Human Misjudgment

Confirmation Bias

Anti-Soros conspiracies sweep the globe (link)

“Conspiracy theorists have an explanation for everything.  So the fact that the Financial Times should publish a column defending Mr. Soros will simply be taken as further evidence of his nefarious influence.

Deprival Super-Reaction Syndrome

Along with the migrating steelhead, Oregon river pool holds life lessons (link)

“He recalls watching a man catch a wild steelhead.  The man was furious because by law, he could keep a marked hatchery fish, but had to throw back a wild fish.  He tore the fish’s mouth and bashed it against a rock.”

“‘As a species, we can be unbelievably kind on an individual basis – a person will give you the shirt off their back on the trail.  But start creating vested interests and people can be unbelievably brutal.‘”

Over-Influence by Authority

Shortcomings in Tesla’s self-driving tech cited among factors in fatal crash (link)

“Joshua Brown, a Tesla owner, was killed last year when his car ran into the side of a truck that was turning across the roadway in front of it.”

“He said Brown had put a higher level of trust in the Autopilot system than was intended and that the driverless technology had not been designed to operate on the road where the crash occurred…Brown had his hands on the steering wheel for only 25 seconds during the 37 minutes leading up to the crash.”

Say-Something Syndrome

Instragram video of weapons leads to an arrest (link)

“A Texas gang member suspected of violent robberies, home invasions and murder, was captured by the LAPD after…he posted a video of himself on Instragram displaying a gun collection,”

Forgetting what one is really trying to do

What started out as a plan to reduce the pigeon population in Lisbon, has turned into a mission to provide “dignity and quality of life” to pigeons.

Lisbon Has Too Many Pigeons, So It Built Them a Luxury Resort (link)

“Since the birdhouse opened…its mission has crept beyond mere population control.  Caretakers have equipped the facility, which costs 250 euros per month to maintain, with a pigeon first-aid station, and there’s talk of offering services such as deworming and, paradoxically, a nursery….’Pigeons deserve and need dignity and quality of life,’ she says”

“A majority of life’s errors are caused by forgetting what one is really trying to do.” – Charlie Munger

Simple Psychological Denial

Ex-Pakistan PM’s wife wins Lahore by-election (link)

The Panama Papers “revealed documents detailing (Mr. Sharif’s) offshore accounts, and show his family owned assets he could not account for…This was followed by the supreme court’s ruling that his unexplained wealth made him unfit for office.”

“But many of Mr. Sharif’s supporters believe the guiding power behind the supreme court ruling was the army,”

Tattoos: Lollapalooza Effect

Youths’ tattoos aren’t always cause for alarm, report says (link)

Consistency and Commitment:

“A 2016 Harris Poll found that most adults who have gotten a tattoo-86%-have never regretted doing so,”

“People think if they have committed to it, it has to be good. The minute they’ve picked it themselves it gets an extra validity. After all, they thought it and they acted o­n it.” – Charlie Munger

Liking Tendency

“They’re emulating people who are out there – athletes, musicians, military personnel – people they look up to,”

Incentive-Caused Bias

“People who get inked typically say they feel sexier, rebellious, attractive or strong.”

Social Proof

“As many as 38% of young people 18 to 29 report having a tattoo…’More often’, she says, ‘(tattoos are a) generational act of solidarity.'”

Mental Model: Parkinson’s Law

Parkinson’s Law. Observation that “work expands to fill the time available for its completion,” and that a sufficiently large bureaucracy will generate enough internal work to keep itself ‘busy’ and so justify its continued existence without commensurate output. (link)

Trump champions UN while urging reform (link)

“‘While the United Nations on a regular budget has increased 140 percent, and its staff has more than doubled since 2000, we are not seeing the results in line with this investment,’ said Mr. Trump”

Various Fascinating Excerpts

A test of compassion (link)

“‘For the first time in my life I was really proud of German,’ she says…But the initial enthusiasm soon wore off…(when she) quickly realized what a hard slog it would be to absorb so many immigrants from an entirely different culture.  The trigger was when an elderly Syrian man told her that ‘Hitler was a good man, because he gassed all the Jews.’

Japan Post share sales faces uncertain journey (link)

“Mr. Nagato was hauled before senior figures in the ruling party and told to ‘work for a living, rather than gambling,’.”

Youths’ tattoos aren’t always cause for alarm, report says (link)

“Human resource managers named tattoos as the third physical attribute likely to limit career potential (non-ear piercings and bad breath were the top two).”

Russian-built nuclear plant revives Chernobyl fears in eastern Europe (link)

“All the profits go to Belarus, all the risks are on the Lithuanian side” – Regarding Nuclear power plant being constructed in Belarus, near the Lithuanian boarder.

Waters Rise and Hurricanes Roar, but Florida Keeps on Building (link)

“Florida was built on the seductive delusion that a swamp is a fine place for a paradise.”

“The risks of building here are far better known today.  Yet newcomers still flock in and building still rise, with everyone seemingly content to double down on a dubious hand.”

WSJ Distilled: January 7-8, 2017

Below are my full notes and highlights from the Wall Street Journal, January 7-8, 2017.

1. Examples of Standard Causes of Human Misjudgment: VW, Wells Fargo, and Theranos have each exhibited;

  • Incentive Causes Bias
  • Consistency and Commitment
  • Reinforcements
  • Is it possible Social Proof is also involved?

2. Very few funds put their money where their mouth is.  The Fulcrum Fee: “Fewer than one in 36 funds and less than $1 out of every $14 in total assets charges performance based fees.”

3. Trump Tax Plan could lead to significant inflationary pressures on consumer retail.  “Consumer apparel prices could rise as much as 15% from the tax plan”

4. Boeing: Prolonged boom since 2010 has stalled.  “Airline profits and jet purchases are closely tied to global economic growth.”

5. There’s a big increase in demand for missiles as a result of 1) ISIS 2) A reluctance to put men in the field 3) The increased precision of modern day missiles.

 The military will pay any price for extra precision: “Extreme accuracy is the difference ‘between hero and zero’ and a matter of American values. ‘You either get it exactly right, or you get it exactly wrong,’ he said. ‘In the business of modern warfare, the expectation is precision on every strike.  So through that lens, the cost factor is less of an issue.'”

6. Brokers are acting more like financial advisers: “The value-add isn’t ‘I bought a great investment’ anymore,”…”Its ‘I’m going to be your personal CFO, your adviser, and look at everything I can offer you.”

7. Extreme times call for extreme measures? To fight currency short-sellers: “Hong Kong’s overnight lending market for the Yuan jumped to 61.3% on Friday, the highest in a year and the second highest level on record.”

P.S. Why does China’s monetary policy remind me of Teddy KGB from Rounders?

“I will not be pushed around!”

“I bet it all…”

8. China takes a bite out of Apple: Apple posted its first annual revenue decline in 15 years, largely as a result of a sharp slowdown in China sales.  “Revenue in greater China, fell 17% in the fiscal year, compared with growth of 84% the prior year.”

9. Don’t find yourself in a Brazilian prison.  You won’t like it.

10. Afghanistan: Insurgents now control more territory than at any time since 2001.

11. Gen. Michael Flynn said he was fired for “speaking truth to power about the inadequacies of the nation’s national security preparedness.”

12. Standard Causes of Human Misjudgment: Government deregulation of the energy sector has led to a 20% increase in oil prices.   This has sparked Riots in Mexico resulting in 2 dead and 300 stores looted, Rioters are exhibiting cases of;

  • Deprival Super-reaction syndrome
  • Social Proof

13. Standard Causes of Human Misjudgment: Hikers are destroying cages meant to exterminate non-native predators of New Zealand birds.  These (presumably) nature-loving hikers are exhibiting;

  • Pavlovian association
  • Disliking distortion
  • Over-influence from extra-vivid evidence.
  • Poor ability to weight positives and negatives.

14. Bootleg version of Fentanyl (50 times the potency of heroin) is commonly made in China.  Leading to increase in opiod-related deaths.

The News Distilled: “The Worst…Since 2008”

I’ve been having a serious case of “financial headline” déjà vu.  Over the past month I’ve been seeing the phrase, “the worst…since 2008”, repeated over and over throughout various economic and financial articles.  The repetitive nature of this ominous headline seemed glaring.  But was it really as pervasive as I thought?  Or was I just seeing something that wasn’t there?

Fueled by this “Neo”-like  curiosity, I decided to look into it further.  I searched for any article from the past month that said, “worst” + “since 2008”, “since the Great Recession”, “since the financial crisis”.

This search yielded rich results of news articles which confirmed my observations.   Without much surprise, these articles painted a gloomy picture of the global economy, reminiscent of 2008.

Despite the one-sided nature of this search, it’s generally “not good” to draw strong parallels with the Great Recession.  If the global economy continues down this path, we could end up experiencing an economic déjà vu.   Only this time we may be faced with the truth of reality as we come to realize that “Blue Pills” are suddenly hard to find.

Image Credit: Matrix.Wikia.com
Image Credit: Matrix.Wikia.com

The articles below summarize some fascinating insights into various economic struggles around the world.

Asia

China
China stocks saw Worst Jan since 2008(Monday, 1 Feb 2016)

The benchmark Shanghai Composite index tanked more than 24 percent last month while the Shenzhen Composite tumbled 27 percent, taking the title of Asia’s worst-performing indices in what has been a tumultuous start to the year.

Japan
Nikkei Suffers Worst Weekly Decline Since 2008(February 12, 2016)

For the week, the Nikkei dived 11.1 percent, the biggest weekly drop since October, 2008.

Worst Asian Junk Bond Start Since 2008 Limits Lippo Debt Revamp. (February 1, 2016)

Standard & Poor’s has eight Indonesian companies on negative outlook or on review with negative implications, the highest level since 2009.

Japan’s exports suffer Worst post-crisis fall as Chinese demand slows (February 18, 2016)

Japan’s annual exports in January fell the most since the global financial crisis as demand weakened in China and other major markets…Exports fell 12.9% year on year in January in their fourth straight month of declines…led by a slump in shipments of steel and oil products.

Indonesia
Indonesian GDP, Worst since 2008/09 crisis. (February 5, 2016)

On quarterly basis, GDP, however contracted by 1.83%, again a bit better than 1.93% expected contraction. Economists expect, Indonesian GDP growth to stick around 4.5% in first half of 2016 due to slowdown in China.

India
India: FFI (Foreign Institutional Investor) selloff in Jan Worst since 2008(Jan 27, 2016)

Foreign institutional in vestors (FIIs) have net sold equities to the tu ne of nearly Rs 10,700 crore so far in January , making it he worst start to a New Year (worst January) since 2008 when the global financial crisis roiled the markets across the world.

Taiwan
Taiwan logs slowest annual growth since ’09 (Jan 29, 2016)

The island nation’s gross domestic product expanded 0.85 per cent in 2015, the slowest rate since 2009. Meanwhile, GDP dipped 0.28 per cent in the final three months of 2015 — the second-straight month of contraction.

Taiwan’s exports could suffer as in financial crisis: official (2016/02/17)

Exports have sustained a double-digit drop for eight consecutive months, the Worst since the 2008-2009 financial crisis Yeh said Tuesday, adding that exports in the first three months of the year could all be negative. If this is the case, Taiwan will experience again the longest decline in exports of 14 consecutive months, which occurred during the financial storm, Yeh said.

Australia

Australian consumer confidence just had its Worst start to a year since 2008(Feb. 1, 2016)

Ominously, ANZ note that the last time sentiment fell in January was in 2008, right before the onset of the global financial crisis.

U.S.
Fitch: High-yield defaults Worst since financial crisis (Feb 19 2016)

Eleven U.S. high-yield bond defaults have occurred this month, according to Fitch- the highest one-month count since September 2009.

U.S. Public Pensions Post Worst Returns Since Market Crash(February 2, 2016)

Government-worker retirement plans had 0.36% return last year…the smallest advance since 2008.  State and local pensions count on annual gains of 7 percent to 8 percent to pay retirement benefits for teachers, police officers and other civil employees. When pensions don’t meet their targets, governments have to put more taxpayer money into the funds to make up the difference. The need to do so has led to credit-rating cuts for New Jersey, Chicago and Illinois, which are being squeezed by rising retirement bills.

HFR: CTAs Shina as Hedge Funds Post Worst Start Since 2008(Feb 5 2016)

Hedge fund performance since the start of the year has been the worst since 2008, according to new data from Hedge Fund Research.

Worst 12 months for high-yield bond funds since financial crisis (February 12, 2016)

Fewer than one in 10 US high-yield bond funds delivered positive returns last year

No Inflation in Sight, Say Two Bond Masters (February 20, 2016)

Personal consumption, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. GDP…according to the fourth quarter estimate…was the Worst year-end showing, year over year, since just after the 2008-09 recession ended.

This has been the Worst quarter for company earnings reports since 2009 (Feb 16, 2016)

The fourth-quarter earnings season, currently wrapping up, is shaping up as the worst quarter for earnings growth since the financial crisis, Bank of America analysts said

 Restaurant Industry Suddenly Tanks, Worst Plunge since the Beginning of the Financial Crisis (February 3, 2016)

The Current Situation Index had hit an all-time high of 103.8 last July, at a time when the restaurant industry, while keeping a worried eye on the market turmoil and the slowdown, was still optimistic that restaurants were independent from it all, that Millennials would pull through, and that consumers in general were still hanging in there. Since then, the Current Situation Index has plummeted 4.2%, on par with the worst 5-month plunge during the Financial Crisis. Back then, the index started out at a lower point, from 102 in early 2007, dropped for two entire years, in all 6.3%, to hit 95.7 in early 2009, before edging back up.  So this is not a good sign. These kinds of plunges only occur when something big is going on.

Europe

European banking sector records Worst performance since 2008 amid global turmoil. (February 8, 2016)

Fears over a sell-off in the European banking sector have gathered pace after the Stoxx Europe 600 Banks Index, the gauge of the banking sector in Europe, recorded its sixth consecutive weekly decline, the worst streak since 2008.

Worst Earnings Letdown Since Crisis Add to Europe Stock Woes. (February 16, 2016)

Europe’s earnings season is only half-way through, but so far even stable profit generators are showing signs of capitulation.

UK

UK productivity gap widens to Worst level since records began (Thursday 18 February 2016)

The gap – up one percentage point on the previous year – was the widest since 1991 and showed a particularly marked deterioration since the onset of the financial crisis and deep recession of 2007-09….Productivity among all the G7 countries deteriorated since the so-called great recession, but the ONS said Britain had been hit hardest.

Canada

 Alberta job losses last year Worst since early 1980s recession: Statscan (January 26, 2016)

Alberta’s job losses last year were 19,600…those losses exceed the 17,000 jobs Alberta shed in the Great Recession in 2009.  It’s the worst year since, 1982, when the province lost more than 45,000 jobs, amid the double-whammy of a global recession and the notorious NEP, a federal government program that capped prices, raised taxes and dramatically discouraged investment in the oil patch.

Canada: Retailers just endured their ‘worst year’ (February 19, 2016)

“[2015] was the Worst year since the Great Recession for Canadian retail,”
It’s been 13 months since Target Canada filed for bankruptcy protection in an Ontario court on Jan. 15, 2015, capping one of the most disastrous expansions in the history of the retail business.

Russia

Russian economy has Worst year since financial crisis (Jan 25 2016)

Russia’s economy shrank 3.7 percent in 2015, the worst drop since the depths of the global financial crisis, as the country struggled with a drop in the price of its oil exports and international sanctions

Distilled: The Education of a Value Investor by Guy Spier

Distilled Series Introduction:

Welcome to the Distilled series where I’ll take some of the most influential and powerful books and concentrate their core ideas down to their most essential points.

The first book in this series proved to be quite influential on my life in 2015.  For that reason, I’m excited to present The Education of a Value Investor by Guy Spier, Distilled.

Distilled: The Education of a Value Investor

The Education of a Value Investor Distilled Virtuous Cycle & Tilt the Playing Field:

The following section expands on the ten core elements.  When reading, keep in mind that although these core elements are listed as discrete and definable concepts, they are not entirely independent of each other.

Each element interacts with the others in the form of a virtuous cycle.  Meaning that when you make a positive change in one point, it will positively influence another point, which may then positively influence another point, and so on through the whole system.

Additionally, Guy emphasizes the importance of doing things that tilting the playing field in your advantage.  Like a casino, you only need to have an imperceptibly small advantage.  But given that enough ‘bets’ are places over time, you will come out far ahead.  These ten points capture the general process Guy used to tilt the playing field in his advantage.

Expanded: The Education of a Value Investor

  1. Commit Yourself Completely

Guy doesn’t embrace ideas with half measures.  He has shown that whether it came to both his academic and financial pursuits early in his life, or a Value Investing career later in life, he takes things to the nth degree.

“Life can change in a heartbeat.” A goal that seems impossible can become entirely possible if we’re willing to commit every ounce of energy to it.

This is certainly one of his main strengths.  Few possess the capacity to commit themselves so completely to an idea or a pursuit.  We should strive to do the same.  For as W.H. Murray wonderfully stated;

“Until one is committed, there is hesitancy, the chance to draw back, always ineffectiveness.  Concerning all acts of initiative, there is one elementary truth the ignorance of which kills countless ideas and splendid plans: that the moment one defiantly commits oneself, the providence moves too.”

  1. Imagine Your Future

This point was only briefly referenced, but it’s certainly a critical element to both his re-education process and pursuit of an investing career.

I’ve often found that we have to imagine our future before it can happen

  1. Brainwash Successful Habits

Guy talks favorably about brainwashing  successful habits.  Specifically he talks about needing to re-wire himself after his brief career at D.H. Blair.

This re-wiring process, by way of brainwashing successful habits, can aid the switch from a life dictated by an external scorecard to one defined by an internal scorecard.  Guy calls these positive habit changing techniques a powerful tool in reconfiguring our consciousness.

“When your consciousness or mental attitude shifts, remarkable things begin to happen.”

  1. Create the Right Environment & Network

Guy talks extensively about the importance of the Right Environment & Network.  Your environment has a massive influence on you, and the importance to set up a positive environment cannot be stressed enough. This includes arranging your work space, choosing the city where you live and work, and the people you associate with.

In fact, he left New York to go to Switzerland where his environment would be more insync with his personality, personal limitations, and career.

Our environment is much stronger than our intellect. Remarkably few investors-either amateur or professional-truly understand this critical point.

Guy says “Nothing, nothing at all, matters as much as bringing the right people into your life.”  Specifically, he espouses the benefits of being involved in a Mastermind group.  Seemingly all influential people participate in one.  Benjamin Franklin had “the Junto”, Warren Buffett has “the Graham Group”, and Guy Spier has “the Latticework Club”.

More generally, he writes how critical it is to get into the orbit influential people and other like-minded, motivated, and giving people.

It’s really a question of choosing to have certain people in your life (however tangentially) who embody the values you admire… creating the right environment or network helps to tilt the playing field subtly in the right direction so that you can become far more likely to succeed.  Advantages are often created imperceptible step by imperceptible step, so it makes a difference to enter the universe of a firm like Ruane Cunniff.

Furthermore, he stresses the value being a giver, as well as the need to surround yourself with people who are givers and matchers, while weeding out the “takers”.

  1. What Would Buffett Do?

Tony Robbins calls this process “modeling”.  A related process is known as “Matching and Mirroring”.  Guy said that sitting down at his desk and actively imagining what Warren Buffett would do if he were him was one of the biggest elements which helped him get unstuck early in his Value Investing journey.

“Desperate to figure out how to lead a life more like his, I began constantly to ask myself one simple question: “What would Warren Buffett do if he were in my shoes?…The minute I started mirroring Buffett, my life changed.  It was as if I had turned in to a different frequency.  My behavior shifted, and I was no longer stuck.

He suggests using matching and mirroring to bring mentors into your life which you may not have immediate access to.  You can do this by imagining them in as much detail as possible, even down to how they’d breath, walk, and act.  This involves gaining a detailed understanding of them.

Choose teachers that have come to learn the truths that you still need to learn. “If you apply this lesson, I’m certain that you will have a much better life, even if you ignore everything else I write.”

  1. Play the Value “Lottery”

Guy really prescribes a lot of value to this concept.   He has described how most people misattribute his success, preferring to believe that it came from the elements like the fact that he went to Harvard & Oxford.  Instead, Guy prescribes a large portion of his success to playing the Value “Lottery”.  Guy describes this process as;

Doing something with an uncertain but potentially high upside. The payoff may be infrequent, but sometimes they’re huge.  And the more often I pick up these lottery tickets, the more likely I am to hit the jackpot.  Doing this will subtly tilt the playing field in your advantage.

The payoff follows an exponential path.  At the beginning, it looks like you are accruing no value, but in the long run, you experience large benefits.  He says that you often have to do these things for 5 to 10 years before you start to see the true benefits from them.

“Over a lifetime, a myriad of simple actions like these can accumulate to create big reputational and relationship advantages. It’s not about luck.  It’s about working harder to get these things right so that it becomes more likely that something good will happen.”

The value lottery generally involves taking small actions which will benefit you on the margins.  By far his favorite way to play the value lottery is through writing thank you notes.   Guy started this program over a decade ago where he forced himself to write three thank you notes a day, five days per week.   He now estimates that he’s written over 30,000 thank you notes in his life.

Every letter I wrote was an invitation for serendipity to strike. To many people, it might seem like a waste of time.  But I couldn’t win the lottery without a ticket, and these tickets were almost free.  In a sense, this is a value investing approach to life: pick up something cheap that may one day prove to be precious.”

For more on this topic, you can also listen an interview with The Investor’s Podcast and a talk at Google where he elaborates further.

  1. Take the Inner Journey: Be Authentic & Use an Inner Scorecard

It’s like that Guy focuses on this concept the most.  It’s a critical concept if you hope to be a successful investor.  He attributes temperament to being the main reason for his investing success.  Likewise, Warren Buffett says that investing is 90% temperament, and that if you had an IQ of 160, you can sell 30 of your IQ points because you don’t need them.

One of my favorite quotes of the book falls under this section of the book.  It explains the need for investors to undertake this inner-transformation quite elegantly:

The goal is to become more self-aware, strip away your facades, and listen to the interior.  For an investor, the benefits are immeasurable because this self-knowledge helps us to become stronger internally and to be better equipped to deal with adversity when it inevitably comes.  The stock market has an uncanny way of finding us out, of exposing weaknesses as diverse as arrogance, jealousy, fear, anger, self-doubt, greed, dishonesty, and the need for social approval.  To achieve sustainable success, we need to confront our vulnerabilities, whatever they may be.  Otherwise, we are building our success on a fragile structure that is ultimately liable to fall down.

Guy states that it’s not only important to becoming a good investor, it’s reward is something greater.

But the real reward of this inner transformation is not just enduring investment success.  It’s the gift of becoming the best person we can be.  That, surely, is the ultimate prize.

  1. Know your limitations & work around them

The element of knowing your limitations comes from both an understanding of ones self, as well as a general acceptance of the short-comings of the human mind.  Only then can an investor structure a process to work around these flaws.

“The real challenge, in my view, is that the brain itself-which got us to where we are-is the weakest link. It’s like a little boat, adrift in a sea of irrationality and subject to unexpected storms.

Specifically, this involves creating the right environment where you can think rationally and developing an investment process using checklists that can help you avoid making classic (subconscious) mental mistakes.

The goal isn’t to be smarter. It’s to construct an environment in which my brain isn’t subjected to quite such an extreme barrage of distractions and disturbing forces that can exacerbate my irrationality.  For me, this has been a life-changing idea.

  1. Pursue Practical Knowledge

Guy learned about many sophisticated economic and financial models during his time at Harvard and Oxford, but he found them to be totally inadequate at explaining how the real world works.  Beyond entertaining people at dinner parties, they were essentially useless.

“The trouble is, economic theories like these tend to be based on intellectually elegant assumptions about how the world operates, not on the messy reality in which we actually live.”

Instead, his “Second MBA” focused on pursuing practical knowledge that explained how the world actually works.  This concept was likely formed out of Charlie Munger’s concept of a Latticework of Mental models.  Charlie states that this kind of education isn’t rewarded in the academic world, but is invaluable when it comes to investing.

“For a while, these books (Think and Grow Rich, How to Win Friends and Influence People, Tony Robbins) became my life instruction manuals.  I wasn’t reading them to sound intelligent at dinner parties; I was mining them for useful ideas to implement in my life.  They provided me with critical first steps in my education as a value investor and businessman, exposing me to a more practical way of thinking about human nature and how the world really works.”

  1. Just Do It.

Guy only briefly talks about this topic, but it was a key element to his success.  Continually throughout the book, Guy opted to take action rather than “pontificate in the library”.  This is an important lesson for for anyone else who struggles with perfectionistic tendencies and/or procrastination habits.

“Robbins hammered into my head the idea that, if you want to get somewhere, anywhere, and you’re stuck, “Just Do It! Just make a move. Any move!” This might be obvious to many.  Hell, it was obvious to me.  But my bias toward analysis-paralysis meant that it was easier for me to pontificate in a library than to act.  Robbins convinced me that I had to break the patterns of negative thought, push through my fears, and get moving.”

Reviewed: The Education of a Value Investor

The Omaha Effect:

On May 2nd, 2015, I attended my first Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder’s Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska.  I happily flew 1,300 miles and committed 4 days of my time and money for this moment.  Why would I do this?  Simple.  I read The Education of a Value Investor by Guy Spier.

The Education of a Value Investor by Guy Spier

My admiration for Warren Buffett stretches back to the mid-nineties, where Berkshire Hathaway’s lofty share price first caught my attention and imagination.  And yet, even after two decades of admiration for Buffett, I never foresaw attending the Berkshire Annual Meeting.  That changed after I read The Education of a Value Investor.

This book caught my imagination, much like BRKA’s share price in the mid 90’s.  As a result, I  began to change the way I thought and acted.  This included my attitude towards attending the Annual Meeting.  It was no longer an intriguing idea, but rather a necessity.

In this matter, I was not alone.  While in Omaha, I attended the Yellow BRKers meeting at the DoubleTree hotel.  In his book, Guy affectionately writes about Yellow BRKers and the influence of this endorsement was immediate felt.  Alex Bossert, the host of the event, stated that 2015 was Yellow BRKers largest crowd to date.  He went on to directly link Guy Spier’s book as the likely cause.

Upon talking with Yellow BRKer attendees, I found that there was a general air of reverence surrounding The Education of a Value Investor.  He had obviously struck a cord.  I even encountered several people who, like myself, after reading Guy’s book, were inspired to attend the Annual Meeting for the first time.

It’s not often that you find a book that influences people in this way.  Here in Omaha I’d found a group of people that were inspired enough to act on the the advice and insights they’d read.  This group of value investing enthusiasts and professionals were the best endorsement a book could receive.

This year, I will be returning to Omaha to attend the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting for the second time, and it all started with reading the Education of a Value Investor.

Honesty, Influence, and “the Value Investing Life”:

How then does a book make such a big influence on so many people?  Likely in the same way that both Tony Robbins and Warren Buffett managed to influence Guy Spier so effectively.  Honesty.  Guy embraced the teachings and values of both of these men because they were honest and authentic.  Now, Guy has managed to resonated with his readers by following the same path.

Accordingly, the book addresses the importance of taking the “inner journey”.  About playing by an inner scorecard and being authentic.  But these elements aren’t simply about how to live a better life.  Instead, they are essential for anyone wishing to become a successful investor.  That’s because you cannot hope to outperform the market if you live your life defined and dictated by external forces.  You must first make an internal change, and only then are you prepared to be a successful investor.

Warren Buffett Insights:

Guy provides unique insights into the investing genius and life of Warren Buffett.  He was able to accomplish this because he approached Warren with great reverence.  He paid close attention to even the smallest details and mined Warren’s life for the elements of success which he could then mirror in his own.

As a results, reading this book will introduce the reader to insights which most people tend to overlook.

The Second MBA:

Guy’s journey to becoming a value investor was not a linear path.  Instead, he spent his youth and early career pursuing prestigious academic degrees, a prestigious wall street job, and the success that goes along with them.  His life only started to change after he experienced something of a career existential crisis.

Upon finishing his Harvard MBA  he began working for D.H. Blair, an investment bank which he later discovered was a morally compromising environment (akin to the infamous Stratton Oakmont).  Up until that point, he had been living his life dictated by an “external scorecard”.  For that reason, he lamented that he wasn’t able bring himself to leave his compromising employer as soon as he should have.  After 18 months, he quite his job and began what he referred to as his “Second MBA” (aka “The Education of a Value Investor”).