Category: Warren Buffett

Wall Street Recap: September 17-23, 2017

/ Richard Lewis / Leave a comment

My full notes and analysis from the past week: September 17-23, 2017.  Periodicals covered in this Wall Street Recap include the WSJ, FT, NYT, and LA Times.

Investing in “Hot” Industries

“A lot of the places where the industries are doing a great job for the world, it’s very hard to make money out of it.  Because these wild enthusiasms come into it.  I don’t have a favorite industry.” – Charlie Munger

In the depths of the ocean, the glow from a small lure stands out among the darkness.  Fish from the surrounding waters swim toward the lure, tempted with the promise of a free lunch.  Little do they realize that they are swimming right into the jaws of an angler fish and their impending doom.

Likewise, “Hot” industries have historically acted like an angler fish, attracting investors who unwittingly swim into the jaws of poor investment returns.   Think back to the hot industries in history such as autos, airlines, and dotcoms.  The lure of those industries was typified by two compelling elements;

  1. A story of a world-changing product or service,
  2. Stellar growth wrapped around massive consumer demand.

Even though those industries had favorable long-term tail-winds, industry returns were abysmal and left thousands of bankrupt companies in its wake.  Why?

Two key reasons:

  1. Durable Moats are Illusive: “Hot” industries are defined by growth and rapid change.  This constantly evolving environment makes it incredibly hard to predict winners and losers.  The best product or service today may become obsolete tomorrow.  And a perceived competitive advantage today may vanish overnight.
  2. Wild Enthusiasm Attracts Too Much Capital: Wild enthusiasm attracts massive amounts of capital into hot industries.  This in turn increases competitive pressures and drives down the returns on invested capital.

Examples of “hot” industries from the last century:

Autos: “Autos had an enormous impact on America, but in the opposite direction on investors.”…”of the two thousand companies, as of a few years ago, only three car companies survived. And, at one time or the other, all three were selling for less than book value which is the amount of money that had been put into the companies and left there.” – Warren Buffett (link)

Airlines:  “Here’s a list of 129 airlines that in the past 20 years filed for bankruptcy. Continental was smart enough to make that list twice. As of 1992, in fact–though the picture would have improved since then–the money that had been made since the dawn of aviation by all of this country’s airline companies was zero. Absolutely zero.” – Warren Buffett

Nifty-Fifty Tech Stocks: A study found that the compounded annual return of the Nifty-Fifty portfolio from the peak in 1972 to 1998 was actually quite admirable, 12.5%.  The study also found that the Technology stocks in the Nifty-Fifty were significantly over-valued at the peak, and, as a result, performed poorly over the 26 year period.  On the other hand, predictable and “boring” consumer staples stocks like Gillette, Phillip Morris, and Coca-Cola all performed well, and, in hindsight, were still undervalued at the peak of the investment craze.  (link)

Mental Model: Viscosity

Viscosity: the state of being thick, sticky, and semifluid in consistency, due to internal friction.  Liquids show a reduction in viscosity (stickiness) with increasing temperature. (link)

Hot industries are like a fluid with low viscosity.  They are fluid, in a state of change, and have little resistance to deformation by (industry) stress.  All of which make them hard to predict.

Meanwhile, industries and businesses that are highly viscous are “sticky”.  Their future can be predicted with reasonable confidence.

As a fluid increases in temperature, its viscosity decreases (i.e. becomes less sticky).  Applying that model to investing, as an industry becomes “hot”, it becomes more fluid and less predictable.

This has implications regarding the usefulness of a company’s historical financials.  As an industry’s “temperature” increases (i.e. becomes more fluid and subject to change), a company’s historical figures may no longer be an accurate representation of its future performance.  Using a company’s historical financials in this new environment invites error and potential over-valuation.  (Or under-valuation if the reverse is true; low viscosity moving to high viscosity)

Investment Lessons:

Avoid “Hot” Industries: Subject to intense competition and an ever shifting environment, it is challenging if not impossible to predict winners and losers in a hot industry.

“We make no attempt to pick the few winners that will emerge from an ocean of unproven enterprises.  We’re not smart enough to do that, and we know it.” – Warren Buffett

Invest in Sticky “Predictable” Businesses: Investing in sticky businesses follows Buffett’s prescription of not fooling yourself and not losing money.

“…we try to apply Aesop’s 2,600-year-old equation to opportunities in which we have reasonable confidence as to how many birds are in the bush and when they will emerge.” – Warren Buffett

“Hot” Industries: In the News

Netflix, Tesla, and Blue Apron are the hottest companies in hottest industries.  Each one is contending with wild enthusiasm and a flood of investment capital.  Some of the most recent developments threatening these companies are listed below.

Netflix

Facebook

“Facebook Inc. is loosening its purse strings in its drive to become a major hub for video.  The social-media giant is willing to spend as much as $1 billion to cultivate original shows for its platform,” (link)

“It also signals Facebook’s readiness to spend more than before to become what Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg calls a ‘video-first’ platform.”

HBO, Amazon, Netflix, Facebook, and Apple are all “banking on video to capture the fleeting attention of users and seize billions of dollars in advertising that is expected to migrate from television to digital video.”

Apple

“Apple Inc. is preparing its own billion-dollar war chest for content.”

Disney

“For Netflix, Disney’s decision to hold on to rights to ‘Star Wars’ and Marvel movies will add to the pressure to create appealing original content of its own to replace some of the high-profile franchise films Netflix will lose starting in 2019.” (link)

“The big problem is not aggregate costs, but costs versus competitors. If your costs are out of line, you’re going to get killed eventually.” – Charlie Munger

Tesla

VW

” VW, the world’s biggest carmaker, says it will build 50 all-electric models by 2025 and electrify 300 models by 2030.”

“The speed of the shift is remarkable…The switch is driven by policy: “European regulators were previously content to set environmental standards and let manufacturers decide how to meet them.  Since the emissions cheating scandal, they are quite reasonably inclined to be more prescriptive…This is prompting a rapid change in consumer behavior: few people will risk buying a car that may be of limited use within a decade.”

Mercedes, Smart, BMW

“Daimler boss Dieter Zetsche said the Mercedes owner’s ‘entire portfolio’ will be electrified by 2022.  The Smart brand will become fully electric by 2020, making it the first internal comustion engine marque to make the switch.”

“BMW told reporters at the show: ‘Our top priority now as a company is electric mobility.'”

Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi alliance

“The chairman and chief executive officer of the Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi alliance is pushing ambitious targets for the auto makers in an effort to leapfrog Silicon Valley and swipe market share, even as some of his biggest rivals look to scale back.” (link)

“He is also planning 12 new electric cars, forays into robotaxi fleets and the debut of a fully autonomous car within six years.”

“With the explosion of technology that is coming, it is going to make it very difficult for smaller players to follow. Mr. Ghosn said.  “You’re going to have a premium for the large car manufacturers because we are the only one who are going to be able to invest in all the fields, all the products, all the markets, all the technology without making any shortcuts or without having any blind spot.”

Blue Apron

Albertsons

“Albertsons Cos. is buying the Plated meal-kit service, the first acquisition of a prepared-meals company by a national grocery chain as supermarkets scramble to keep shoppers coming to their stores.” (link)

Bob Miller, chief executive of Boise, Idaho-based Albertsons, said in an interview Wednesday: “We think there’s an opportunity to grow this thing tremendously,” adding that the supermarket will give Plated a “cost advantage” over other meal-kit companies by the scale of its food purchasing and network of 18 manufacturing plants.

“The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money.” – Warren Buffett

Psychology of Human Misjudgment

Confirmation Bias

Anti-Soros conspiracies sweep the globe (link)

“Conspiracy theorists have an explanation for everything.  So the fact that the Financial Times should publish a column defending Mr. Soros will simply be taken as further evidence of his nefarious influence.“

Deprival Super-Reaction Syndrome

Along with the migrating steelhead, Oregon river pool holds life lessons (link)

“He recalls watching a man catch a wild steelhead.  The man was furious because by law, he could keep a marked hatchery fish, but had to throw back a wild fish.  He tore the fish’s mouth and bashed it against a rock.”

“‘As a species, we can be unbelievably kind on an individual basis – a person will give you the shirt off their back on the trail.  But start creating vested interests and people can be unbelievably brutal.‘”

Over-Influence by Authority

Shortcomings in Tesla’s self-driving tech cited among factors in fatal crash (link)

“Joshua Brown, a Tesla owner, was killed last year when his car ran into the side of a truck that was turning across the roadway in front of it.”

“He said Brown had put a higher level of trust in the Autopilot system than was intended and that the driverless technology had not been designed to operate on the road where the crash occurred…Brown had his hands on the steering wheel for only 25 seconds during the 37 minutes leading up to the crash.”

Say-Something Syndrome

Instragram video of weapons leads to an arrest (link)

“A Texas gang member suspected of violent robberies, home invasions and murder, was captured by the LAPD after…he posted a video of himself on Instragram displaying a gun collection,”

Forgetting what one is really trying to do

What started out as a plan to reduce the pigeon population in Lisbon, has turned into a mission to provide “dignity and quality of life” to pigeons.

Lisbon Has Too Many Pigeons, So It Built Them a Luxury Resort (link)

“Since the birdhouse opened…its mission has crept beyond mere population control.  Caretakers have equipped the facility, which costs 250 euros per month to maintain, with a pigeon first-aid station, and there’s talk of offering services such as deworming and, paradoxically, a nursery….’Pigeons deserve and need dignity and quality of life,’ she says”

“A majority of life’s errors are caused by forgetting what one is really trying to do.” – Charlie Munger

Simple Psychological Denial

Ex-Pakistan PM’s wife wins Lahore by-election (link)

The Panama Papers “revealed documents detailing (Mr. Sharif’s) offshore accounts, and show his family owned assets he could not account for…This was followed by the supreme court’s ruling that his unexplained wealth made him unfit for office.”

“But many of Mr. Sharif’s supporters believe the guiding power behind the supreme court ruling was the army,”

Tattoos: Lollapalooza Effect

Youths’ tattoos aren’t always cause for alarm, report says (link)

Consistency and Commitment:

“A 2016 Harris Poll found that most adults who have gotten a tattoo-86%-have never regretted doing so,”

“People think if they have committed to it, it has to be good. The minute they’ve picked it themselves it gets an extra validity. After all, they thought it and they acted o­n it.” – Charlie Munger

Liking Tendency

“They’re emulating people who are out there – athletes, musicians, military personnel – people they look up to,”

Incentive-Caused Bias

“People who get inked typically say they feel sexier, rebellious, attractive or strong.”

Social Proof

“As many as 38% of young people 18 to 29 report having a tattoo…’More often’, she says, ‘(tattoos are a) generational act of solidarity.'”

Mental Model: Parkinson’s Law

Parkinson’s Law. Observation that “work expands to fill the time available for its completion,” and that a sufficiently large bureaucracy will generate enough internal work to keep itself ‘busy’ and so justify its continued existence without commensurate output. (link)

Trump champions UN while urging reform (link)

“‘While the United Nations on a regular budget has increased 140 percent, and its staff has more than doubled since 2000, we are not seeing the results in line with this investment,’ said Mr. Trump”

Various Fascinating Excerpts

A test of compassion (link)

“‘For the first time in my life I was really proud of German,’ she says…But the initial enthusiasm soon wore off…(when she) quickly realized what a hard slog it would be to absorb so many immigrants from an entirely different culture.  The trigger was when an elderly Syrian man told her that ‘Hitler was a good man, because he gassed all the Jews.’“

Japan Post share sales faces uncertain journey (link)

“Mr. Nagato was hauled before senior figures in the ruling party and told to ‘work for a living, rather than gambling,’.”

Youths’ tattoos aren’t always cause for alarm, report says (link)

“Human resource managers named tattoos as the third physical attribute likely to limit career potential (non-ear piercings and bad breath were the top two).”

Russian-built nuclear plant revives Chernobyl fears in eastern Europe (link)

“All the profits go to Belarus, all the risks are on the Lithuanian side” – Regarding Nuclear power plant being constructed in Belarus, near the Lithuanian boarder.

Waters Rise and Hurricanes Roar, but Florida Keeps on Building (link)

“Florida was built on the seductive delusion that a swamp is a fine place for a paradise.”

“The risks of building here are far better known today.  Yet newcomers still flock in and building still rise, with everyone seemingly content to double down on a dubious hand.”

Wall Street Recap: Part 2

/ Richard Lewis / 2 Comments

Part 2 of my full notes and analysis from the past two weeks: September 3-16, 2017.  Periodicals covered in this Wall Street Recap include the WSJ, FT, NYT, and LA Times.

The “Burned Cat” Phenomenon

Investors who get burned by an asset bubble often develop a learned apprehension towards that asset class, regardless of its future economics or valuation.  In other words, they go about acting like Mark Twain’s cat who, after sitting on a hot stove lid, never sat on a hot or cold stove lid ever again. (link)

Learned apprehension can lead to depressed asset prices as well as severe under-investment in new supply.

1) Depressed asset prices

Investors may develop an irrational resistance towards an asset which has burned them before.  Making them reluctant to invest, even at very attractive prices.  Example:

Elon Musk

Elon Musk experienced this “Burned Cat” phenomenon while working for a bank early in his career.  He found Brazilian debt trading for 25 cents on the dollar, which was guaranteed by the U.S. Treasury for 50 cents on the dollar.  He presented this investment idea to the Bank’s CEO who promptly rejected it saying, “the bank had been burned on Brazilian and Argentinean debt before and didn’t want to mess with it again.” (link)  Taken aback, Elon tried to explain that you couldn’t lose unless you thought the U.S. Treasury was going to default, making it an effective “no-brainer”.  The CEO still declined.

2) Severe under investment in new supply

During an asset bubble, investors eagerly build out new supply, over-extend themselves, and set the ground for their own demise.  Following the bust, investors may become hesitant to develop new supply, even when favorable economic tailwinds present themselves.  As a result, an industry that was once defined by chronic over-supply, can shift into one defined by chronic under-supply.  Examples:

Ethiopian Famine

This feast or famine industry cycle contributed to Ethiopia’s 1983-1985  famine.  Having been burned by  a bountiful harvest and low prices the year before, “Ethiopian farmers produced less grain and more cash crops or livestock, reducing food production in the following year.” (link)

Ireland Housing

Ireland’s real estate market is experiencing the after-effects of the “Burned Cat” phenomenon.  Leading up to the financial crisis, Ireland produced one of the most severe housing bubbles in the world.  The subsequent bust resulted in years of under-investment in new housing.  The country has since developed a chronic shortage of new homes and property prices are rapidly rising.

As the Financial Times described: (link)

“With Ireland facing a chronic shortage of homes and property prices again rising rapidly,”

“Builders are struggling to meet 10 years of pent-up demand for new homes, while rents are rising and Dublin faces a growing homelessness crisis.”

“Housebuilding, which declined to a trickle after the crash, has stepped up markedly yet acute strains remain.  Although private builders are projected to complete 18,000 homes this year, industry figures estimate 30,000 units will be required for years to come.”

“Figures this week showed annual property inflation on a national basis is advancing at 12.3 per cent.” 

Misjudgment underpinning the Burned Cat Phenomenon:

“Burned Cat” investments are influenced by a lollapalooza of human misjudgment, including:

  1. Extra-Vivid Evidence: Investors who have been burned by an investment won’t soon forget.
  2. Pavlovian Association: Through negative reinforcement, investors learn to reflexively avoid an asset class.
  3. Over-Influence from Authority: News coverage of a “burned cat” investment is likely to be prominent, negative, and pessimistic.
  4. Social Proof: No one else is investing in it, so that reinforces the notion that it’s the right thing to do.
  5. Bias from the non-mathematical nature of the human brain: Investors tend to naively extrapolate past returns which contributes to extreme valuations during bubbles and busts.

Investment Lesson: Actively look for assets that have burned investors.  They may present excellent opportunities due to;

  1. The market’s unwillingness to invest in the asset, even when favorable economics and valuations exist.
  2. Severe under-investment in new supply, which sets the stage for future supply shortages.  (Pay special attention to areas where supply cannot ramp up quickly.)

Standard Causes of Human Misjudgment

Social Proof: Rationalized/Normalized Terrible Behavior

At Home Among the Giants (link)

Wllie McCovey: “I tried working as a bus boy in a whites-only restaurant, but I quit after a week.  All the things that make you cringe was normal talk then.  You took it or you walked away.”

“The five most dangerous words in business are: ‘Everybody else is doing it’.” – Warren Buffett

Social Proof: Fear of Missing out

Leveraged Loans too Popular (link)

 “Some companies that reprice loans have cut debt-to-earnings multiples. But for many, nothing has changed other than the strength of investor demand for debt.“

“When demand is strong, any investor that declines the lower yield risks seeing another buyer take their place, and many are battling to keep their money invested.”

Deprival Super-Reaction Syndrome

That Airline Seat You Paid for Isn’t Yours (link)

“Political commentator Ann Coulter…erupted in a Twitter tirade earlier in July after Delta moved her from a preferred aisle seat to a window seat in the same extra-legroom row.”

 “…passengers think they can buy the rights to a specific seat…Airlines say that legally, you don’t.”

Contrast Caused Distortion

Passive Migration: Denver Wins Big as Financial Firms Relocate to Cut Costs (link)

 “If you’re talking to someone who’s been in Denver, they’ll say it’s getting unaffordable, but if you’re coming from San Francisco, the reverse sticker-shock is wonderful,” said Ms. Droller. 

“And while Denver home prices reached a record in June, they are still far below San Francisco.”

Incentive Caused Bias 

Wall Street Needs You to Borrow Against Your Stock (link)

“Morgan Stanley’s finance chief said, ‘that the bank expects more clients to take out loans in the months ahead. ‘That’s been a real key driver of our wealth business.‘”

“The Massachusetts securities watchdog last year accused Morgan Stanley of developing a sales program that encouraged brokers to pitch these loans regardless of whether clients needed them.“

“Several Merrill Lynch brokers said they have asked long-standing clients to open a securities-backed line of credit to help them hit bonus hurdles,”

“The guy tells you what is good for him…So you’re getting your advice in this world from your paid advisor with this huge load of ghastly bias.” – Charlie Munger

Lesson: Watch out for rapidly growing products and services on Wall Street.  They likely are associated with massive incentive-caused bias.

Consistency & Commitment Tendency

Wall Street Needs You to Borrow Against Your Stock (link)

Merrill Lynch brokers asked long-standing client to open lines of credit “assuring that clients wouldn’t need to use it or pay any fees for opening it.”

“Brokerage executives have said the longer a client has one of these loans tied to their account, the more likely they are to use it.”

“People think if they have committed to it, it has to be good.” – Charlie Munger

Lesson: Beware of commitments, even seemingly harmless ones.

Lollapalooza Effect: Examples

“I would say the one thing that causes the most trouble is when you combine a bunch of these (causes of misjudgment) together, you get this lollapalooza effect.” – Charlie Munger

LIBOR: Incentive Caused Bias, Pavlovian Association, Social Proof, Envy/Jealousy

The LIBOR was a terribly flawed benchmark.  It was easily to manipulate and bankers were highly rewarded for doing so.  Everyone around them was doing it, and they were all getting rich.  Hence, “studies have estimated that hundreds of trillions of dollars of financial contracts around the world were created based on the benchmark.

Libor: A Eulogy for the World’s Most Important Number (link)

“It turned out that banks were skilled at getting Libor to move in favorable directions.  After all, it was their employees who were guesstimating their borrowing costs, so it was simple enough to skew those figures in helpful directions.”

“But government investigations soon showed not only that manipulation was wide-spread and easy to pull off, but also that government officials and central bankers had known for years about Libor’s vulnerabilities but failed to act.”

“If you carry bushel baskets full of money through the ghetto, and made it easy to steal, that would be a considerable human sin, because you’d be causing a lot of bad behavior, and the bad behavior would spread.” – Charlie Munger

Fire Ants in Japan: Stress-Induced Mental Changes, Social Proof, Extra-Vivid Evidence

The sudden stress from the arrival of fire ants in Japan, along with extra-vivid coverage from the media prompted faster and more extreme reactions.  Furthermore, Social-Proof amplified the power of this reaction.

Evacuate the Sandbox! Japan Is Freaking Out About Fire Ants (link)

“The mild panic here is partly due to sensationalism in the mass media, with some reports falsely depicting fire ants as murderous,” said Mr. Hashimoto.

“Better safe than sorry, said one wrestler.”

“He drew a parallel in Japan’s experience with how U.S. fire ant infestations in the 1950s were caught up in fear about communism.”

“Shares of pesticide makers have surged on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and one manufacturer started selling ponchos made from industrial-strength material that allegedly protects the wearer from fire ants.”

“He added, ‘It is necessary for everyone in the nation to recognize correctly the characteristics of fire ants and address the matter calmly.'”

“One consequence of this tendency is that extra vivid evidence, being so memorable and thus more available in cognition, should often consciously be underweighed while less vivid evidence should be overweighed.” – Charlie Munger

Wall Street Journal Recap: March 6-12, 2017

/ Richard Lewis / Leave a comment

My full notes and analysis on the Wall Street Journal from the past week: March 6-12, 2017 (Week 10).  Please Enjoy.

Central Banks & NDF Contracts: Have your cake and eat it too!

‘Shore up your currency, No money down!’  It sounds like a bad late night television ad.  It’s also what many central banks around the world have been doing very actively in recent years.

Traditionally central banks will buy and sell foreign currency to manage the strength of their currencies.  This process leads to large fluctuations in foreign exchange reserves. But it appears that many central banks have started to rely heavily upon Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) contracts.  NDFs provide central bankers a way to both keep their foreign currency reserves and manage inflationary and deflationary pressure.  Additionally, NDFs suppress foreign exchange volatility, and even allow central banks to increase reserves.

But these benefits are largely illusory.  Foreign exchange volatility isn’t lower, rather NDFs have simply removed it from the central bank’s books.  In this way, NDFs are not much different than Credit Default Swaps used by banks before the financial crisis, or Special Purpose Vehicles used by Enron to manipulate its balance sheet.

You could say that NDF contracts have allowed Central Banks to have their cake and eat it too.  China, Mexico, and India are all indulging in this cake-eating-and-holding paradox.

At the moment, NDFs appear to be effective when used in stable markets, but during times of stress, the complexion of these derivatives will almost certainly change.  So the more the central banks rely on NDFs, the more pain will be felt in periods of turmoil.

P.S. I would love to find information regarding the size and growth of non-deliverable forward currency contracts (NDF).  But it’s hard to get.

China

Since the financial Crisis, The People’s Bank of China has significantly increased their reliance on NDF’s.

“The People’s Bank of China has been using derivatives to prop up the yuan without actually spending its stash of dollars.” (link)

“The derivatives, however, make the picture look rosier than it really is.”

“Derivative interventions are considered quite unorthodox despite having a long history. One of the pioneers was the Bank of France, which in 1927 famously resorted to buying sterling in forward markets because it wanted to quell inflows into the franc without having to issue more notes. It wasn’t very successful back then, and results have remained mixed ever since.”

Feb 17 2015: “the average daily trading volume across all NDF currency markets has grown from about $20 billion to $60 billion over last five years. The rise in activity in NDF markets is particularly noticeable for the rupee, the Brazilian real and the Chinese yuan. These economies are becoming increasingly important in the global trade.” (link)

Mexico: A Dollar-Hedgeing Program Is Started

“The Bank of Mexico launched a dollar-hedging program placing all $1 billion in forward contracts as it opens a new front in efforts to support the peso without draining foreign reserves.”…”The nondeliverable forwards are settled in pesos.” (link)

“The use of derivatives gives the central bank ammunition to support the peso without selling dollars from its foreign reserves, as it has done in recent years.”

India: Reserve Bank steps in to rein in runaway rupee

“Besides traditional dollar buying from the domestic spot market, there was a tweak in the intervention strategy, dealers said.” (link)

“State-owned banks made ‘sellbuy’ derivative deals, converting spot dollar buying transactions into forward deals, dealers said, deferring delivery of dollars through such forwards deals. Banks sell dollars they bought in the spot market and then they buy the same unit in the next leg as a forward transaction, keeping the net position at ‘buy’.”

“‘The approach is aimed at limiting rupee liquidity in the system,’  said the head currency dealer of a mid-size bank.”

ZTE Warning Label: Official Sponsor of North Korea

Last week, Chinese telecom company ZTE plead guilty to supplying North Korea and Iran with telecommunications equipment over a six year period.  They orchestrated an elaborate system to circumvent U.S. sanctions and supply these countries with U.S. technology.  For its actions, ZTE was fined $892 million. (link)

But I don’t think a fine is enough.  ZTE is the #4 maker of smart phones, by volume, in the U.S.  As a consumer products company, I think U.S. citizens should be warned that ZTE illegally circumvented U.S. policies and sponsored the governments of North Korea and Iran.

So I propose adhering a warning sticker to all of their consumer products.  Much like you’d find on a pack of cigarettes.  I imagine it would look something like this.

They couldn’t give those phones away.  And it would serve as a very high-profile warning to all other companies.

The Inhaler Checklist

When looking to avoid catastrophic mistakes, checklists have be proven to be extraordinarily effective.  Whether in hospitals, airplanes, or investing.  Another application: Inhalers.

“Studies have found that patients make at least one mistake as much as 70% to 90% of the time.  The result: only about 7% to 40% of drugs is delivered to the lungs.”

“Coordination was the biggest and most series error…Even half a second late in inhaling and you press the inhaler too soon you get only 20% of the medication.”

Problems:

  • Coordination: Holding breath at the proper moment
  • Forgetting to shake the inhaler.
  • Exhaling too quickly

Investment Lesson:

Use checklists:  They have the universally accepted benefit of helping us avoid catastrophic decisions or actions.

Trump’s stock market rally: It’s not how you start. It’s how you finish.

Interesting history on stock market performance over Presidential terms.  (link)

“Other presidents had misleading starts. Herbert Hoover presided over a nearly 44% total return in his first 10 months for the predecessor of the S&P 500.  But the index dropped 31% on an annualized basis during his entire four years in office.  Unsurprisingly he wasn’t re-elected.”

Barriers to Entry: Lobbying & Political Self-Interest

Lobbying & Political Self-Interest make it very challenging to enter or disrupt some industries.  When threatened by a new entrant, old corporate hegemons will use their vast lobbying resources to prevent upstart competitors from displacing them.

Meanwhile, self-interested politicians will be motivated to fight on behalf of the old hegemons who supply their state with massive employment and tax revenue.

Here are some examples from this past week.

Self-Driving Tech Companies vs. GM (link):

“After falling behind in self-driving cars, GM has unleashed its powerful lobbying team to cultivate relationships with statehouses. The largest U.S. vehicle maker by sales has a long history of backing legislation to preserve its interests, including a bill in Indiana last year that would stop electric-vehicle maker Tesla Inc. from operating its own stores there.”

Airbnb vs. The Hotel Industry (link):

“The hotel industry has been at the forefront of lobbying for stricter regulations on Airbnb that it says are needed to put the service on a level playing field with traditional hotels.”

Avoid “National Champions”

Avoid direct competition with companies which are national champions of socialist and communist countries.  Specifically in industries which sell commoditized products; i.e. China & Steel.  These companies will likely have a lower cost of capital than you and make your life a nightmare.

GM recently exited Europe with its sale of Opel.  Among the problems they faced in Europe was the existence of car companies labeled as “national champions” who received support from their respective governments.

Mary Barra, GM’s CEO, addressed these issues in a statement:

“Our overall philosophy is every country, every market segment has to earn its cost of capital, has to be contributing.” (link)

“Europe, which has always been cutthroat due to a glut of capacity and national interests in auto makers, became even more difficult from political, regulatory, and consumer-preference standpoints in recent years,”

Carlos Ghosn, Nisan’s CEO, talked about Renault being treated as a national champion.

” Mr. Ghosn, speaking in an interview Thursday, said a merger is off the table as long as French officials see Renault as a national champion, with interests that are separate from the Japanese partners. “Nissan has been very clear during discussions with the French state that they are not going further in terms of a merger, or anything else, with the French state as a shareholder of Renault.”” (link)

Market Developments

Multi-year Highs and Lows

There were lots of multi-year highs and lows occurring last week.

“The U.S. posted its biggest monthly trade deficit in nearly five years in January,”

“The downtown Miami market is expected to see the most new condos delivered this year since 2008, roughly 3,500 units in all,”…”at the peak, developers could finance up to 75% of the cost to build a project, not that is down to 50%.”  (link)

“This week marks the bull market‘s eight-year anniversary, the second-longest on record.  Since the March 2009 bottom, the S&P 500 has surged more than 300% including dividends.” (link

“65,500 metric tons of copper flowed into exchange-approved warehouses Monday and Tuesday, a surge of 33%, the biggest two-day rise in 20 years,” (link)

“The price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 based on analyst forecasts for the next year is near 17.7, the highest since 2004,”

“There were a total of 279 insider buyers in January, the lowest number going back to 1988,” (link)

“Short positions across stocks, exchange traded funds and equity futures last week fell to near their lowest levels in 10 years,” (link)

The yield on the two-year note, closed at 1.329%.  That was the highest since June 2009.” (link)

“In 2017, with global equity funds posting record net inflows in the week ended March 1 based on data going back to 2000,” (link)

Effect of Proposed House Tax Plan

“Under the House (tax) plan, Goldman figures it would drop (corporate taxes) to 24%, boosting after-tax earnings by about 10%…The market currently trades at about 18 times analysts’ expected earnings for 2016,…Raise earnings by 10% and that price/earnings ratio slips to a more reasonable but still expensive 16.4.” (link)

Central Banks Ratchet Up Reserves (link)

“Central banks around the world are increasing foreign-currency reserves, highlighting the fragile underpinnings of the global economic recovery despite a bullish mood in financial markets.

“Two-thirds of the 30 biggest emerging markets increased reserves last year,”

“Switzerland’s holdings of foreign assets jumped last month at their fastest pace in more than two years,”

“In January, Russia added $13 billion to its $390.6 billion in reserves, its largest monthly increase in more than four years.“

“In Europe, big increases in reserves are often associated with periods of global stress….External reserves are a form of insurance for sovereigns against crisis and defaults,”

 China News

There were lots of fascinating news stories regarding China developments over the past week:

China’s Steel Cuts Aren’t as Deep as They Appear (link)

China cut steel capacity by 10.5% last year.  But it was practically meaningless as most of it was long-since idled.  Furthermore, despite the capacity reductions, steel production rose 1.2%.

“Chinese mills make half the world’s steel but depend on state subsidies and bailout mergers to survive.”

“From 2011 to 2015, global steel prices fell 70% as Chinese companies flooded the market with cheap steel.”

Beijing Tightens Grip on Internet Portals (link)

China’s theme for this year is “stability”.  That means cracking down on internet-based political commentaries.  Is this a signal of coming instability?

“Ending practices that skirt regulations fits with the ever tightening control the government has exerted on the internet since President Xi Jinping rose to power in late 2012.  Targeting outright political dissent has expanded to include critical commentaries.”

“Any company whose service could potentially trigger social unrest should brace itself for more regulation-or at least greater scrutiny, industry insiders say.”

Chinese Lenders Tap the Brakes (link)

How can an economy be so herky-jerky?  One month they have near record lending, the next they slam on the brakes, and so on.

“Chinese banks sharply scaled back lending last month, after a near-record tally in January, as Beijing tries to strike a balance between boosting economic growth and containing financial risks.”

U.S. TV Foray Ends for China’s Wanda (link):

There have been several Chinese deals halted suddenly since the Trump election.  Here’s another one.

“Dalian Wanda Group’s $1 billion deal to buy Dick Clark Productions Inc. is dead…Beijing’s scrutiny of overseas investments, stemming from fear that too much capital flight could weaken the yuan, also killed takeover talks between several Chinese companies and Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Studios late last year.”

China Logs Rare Trade Gap (link)

“China recorded its first trade deficit in three years last month, driven by higher commodity prices, an unexpected drop in exports, and the effect of the Lunar New Year holiday.”

Beijing’s Numbers Are Difficult to Reconcile (link)

“Tuesday brought a surprise increase in foreign-exchange reserves.  Wednesday, it was an unexpected trade deficit – China’s first in three years – which made the rise in Beijing’s currency hoard even harder to account for.”

“A trade deficit ought to put additional pressure on the People’s Bank of China to support the yuan, by selling down its foreign-currency reserves-but the evidence shows the central bank spent less on defending the yuan last month than in the recent past.”

The Economic Costs of Ideology

Several articles address the economic costs of ideological polices.  I found it rather fascinating how economics and ideology interplay in shaping legislation.

  • Legislative Hearing Held on Bathroom Bill: “Major players in Texas’ business community have also argued the bill will hamper their ability to draw workers and investment.” (link)
  • Ivanka Trump’s Billionaire Landlord: The proposed mine is opposed by environmental groups and by Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton, a Democrat. It is supported by Minnesota officials of both parties who cite potential job creation.  S. Rep. Rick Nolan, a Democrat who represents the area, in a news release attacked the lease decision as “anti-mining, anti-jobs“ and urged Mr. Trump’s administration to overturn a related move by Mr. Obama’s administration to place a 20-year moratorium on mining in the area.” (link)
  • Hawaii’s Lawsuit On Travel Order Set for a Hearing: “The state says the travel restrictions are a blow to tourism, to in-state employers who need foreign workers…” (link)

“Forecasting” Oil Prices

In January bullish oil bets hit a 10 year high.  Two months later U.S. inventory levels his a record and oil prices rapidly sunk.  This shows the difficulty of forecasting such things and the euphoria and panic that can grip market participants.

January 31, 2017: Bullish Oil Bets Climb to Record (link): ” Long positions exceeded shorts by such a degree that it’s the largest net bullish position in 10 years of data from the CFTC.”

March 9, 2017: Crude Logs Biggest Drop in Over a Year (link): “Oil prices suffered their biggest one-day plunge in more than a year after U.S. crude stockpiles hit record levels, raising concerns that even after recent production cuts, the world remains awash in oil.”…”US. inventory levels have risen for nine weeks in a row.  They hit a record of 528.4 million barrels last week as imports and U.S. production increased.”

March 10, 2017 (link): U.S. crude fell below $50 a barrel for the first time this year, in the biggest two-day sell-off since June.

“Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.” – Warren Buffett

Quote of the Week:

“Borrowers were more likely to receive aid if they threatened to go to the media with their complaints, one former employee said.” (link)

Wall Street Journal Recap: February 20-26, 2017

/ Richard Lewis / Leave a comment

My full notes and analysis on the Wall Street Journal from the past week: February 20-26, 2017 (Week 8).  Please Enjoy.

Donald Trump: Pre-Suasion genius?

Is Donald Trump a Pre-Suasion genius?  He is constantly criticized for being too vague about the details of his plans and chronically leaving people in a state of uncertainty.  But that might just be the key to his success.

Stock markets typically reject uncertainty as a negative force.  But in the case of President Trump, markets have embraced a sort of “positive uncertainty”.  In his book Pre-Suasion, Robert Cialdini provides a compelling insight which may explain Trump’s strong positive influence on the stock market:

“During the experiment, the men who kept popping up in the women’s minds were those whose ratings hadn’t been revealed, confirming the researchers’ view that when an important outcome is unknown to people, “they can hardly think of anything else.”  And because we know, regular attention to something makes it seem more worthy of attention, the women’s repeated refocusing on (the guys whose ratings remained unknown to the women) made them appear the most attractive.” – Robert Cialdini

Now let’s look at an excerpt from an article the other week titled “Federal Reserves Eye Aggressive Rate Increases.” (link)

“President Donald Trump’s plans for tax cuts, new spending and deregulation have buoyed market hopes of faster economic growth and higher corporate profits.  But Fed officials at the meeting underscored their uncertainty about the details and effects of the potential policy changes, according to the minutes.”

“A few policy makers also worried that investors betting on tax cuts “which might not materialize” had pushed up equity prices too much.”

Post-Mortem: Glencore and Copper (link)

Copper prices surged more than 30% in the last year and shares in Glencore have more than tripled in the past 12 months.  The two biggest drivers in copper prices over this time-period were:

1) China Stimulus: “The metal’s resurgence partially has been driven by a government economic stimulus program in China, where over 40% of the world’s copper is consumed.”

2) Labor Disputes: There have also been “snags at two of the world’s largest copper mines-labor problems at Chile’s Minera Escondida, and a permit dispute with the Indonesian government for Freeport-McMorRan Inc.’s Grasberg mine.”

So I’m curious…how many investors in Glencore identified “China Stimulus” and “Labor Disputes” as the main parts of their investment thesis?  My guess is very few.

“Histogram Management”

Charlie Munger once mused about The Kellogg Company that there’s nothing keeping cereal producers from going crazy over market share and tearing each other apart. (link)  So when investing in an industry, you have to seriously consider; What force is maintaining rational economic decision-making in this industry?

The CEO of Glencore appeared to be surprised and upset when his competitors weren’t acting rational in the wake of declining commodity prices.

“(Glencore) CEO has long criticized his competitors for ramping up supply in the face of falling prices.” (link)

Such a reaction seems to indicate a lack of understanding of human psychology and the forces that drive rational economic behavior.  After all, there are many reasons management would ramp up production in the face of declining prices.  Here are four such reasons:

1) Incentive-caused biases linked to executive compensation or job security.

2) Prisoner’s dilemma and the Fear of Missing Out.  Which explains why two rational individuals might not cooperate, even when doing so is in their best interest.

3) Social Proof.  You look around and no one is cutting production, so this must be the right thing to do.

4) A genuine economic desire to survive.  i.e. They keep producing at a loss in order to cover massive fixed costs.

Expanding upon the first point of Incentive-caused bias, management may have a personal economic incentive to manage earnings based on compensation packages.  I like to think of this behavior as “Histogram Management.”

When commodity prices are declining, the easiest way for a mining company to show stable and growing profits is to rapidly increase sales in the wake of declining margins.  This strategy of channel stuffing may provide stable earnings figures in the short-term, but it will exacerbate the problem for the entire industry over the long-term.

(Image via Latticework Investing)

Investment lessons:

1) Management often won’t behave in economically rational ways.  Therefore, watch out for industries which allow for competition to intensify to the point of mutually ensured destruction.

2) Poorly designed executive compensation can make or break a company/industry.

In other words, don’t give them the rope with which to hang you.

Car Sales Eating into Macy’s Business?

Macy’s CEO said that record U.S. car sales indicate consumers have spent a bigger portion of their budget on bit-ticket items lately.

“At some point in time you’ve got to believe that everybody’s going to have a brand-new car,”…”There’s dollars that are going to be freed up for other categories of spending.” (link)

It makes sense too.  Car purchases are highly interest rate sensitive.  A majority of new cars are purchased with debt.  Today the APR on an auto-loan starts at 3.12%.  Meanwhile the APR on a Macy’s credit card is 24.5%.  It’s no wonder that sales of goods that can be bought with debt have done well, while cash-based retailers have struggled.

(Image via Interest.com)

Market Developments:

1) Home sales booming on historically low inventory (link)

January home sales reach highest level since February 2007, on the back of the lowest inventory levels on record (circa 1999).

“Home sales rose in January to the highest level since February 2007, a sign that last year’s momentum extended into 2017 despite a limited supply of properties for sale and rising prices.”

“Inventory rose 2.4% at the end of January from the end of December, when supply hit the lowest level since the Realtors association began tracking all types of supply in 1999.

2) Banks Retreat from Apartment Market (link)

Apartment supplies are growing rapidly, as a result, loans are getting more expensive and harder to come by, and rent growth is slowing.

“Swelling supplies of apartment units are prompting big banks to pull back from new projects, forcing developers to scramble for capital.”

“I haven’t seen anything this seismically different since 2008, when credit dried up.”

“fresh supply is beginning to overwhelm demand.  More than 378,000 new apartments are expected to be completed in 2017, a 30-year high,”

“Commercial mortgage brokers said they are seeing and uptick in mezzanine loans…(and) a rise in preferred equity, which also come with higher payments than bank loans…”

“Other developers are turning to smaller regional banks, such as Bank of the Ozarks, which can command higher rates,”

3) Corporate Bonds: (link)

All around the world, corporate debt has proved a popular investment class so far this year…

Asia: “Nowhere is the trend more surprising than in Asia, where money has kept flowing into even the riskiest debt.  The extra yield, or spread, investors demand for holding both investment-grade and high-yield Asian corporate debt versus risk-free U.S. Treasuries has narrowed since the U.S. election last November and is heading towards its tightest levels since 2008,”

U.S.: “U.S. corporate-bond spreads are at their tightest in two years.”

Europe: “In Europe, investors also have continued to pile into corporate credit in countries like Germany and France, despite uncertainty created by key elections…”

Areas where I see potential problems with corporate debt demand:

1) Naive Extrapolation of past default rates in Asia: “The default rate on high-yield corporate bonds was lower in Asia than in the U.S. last year at 1% versus 3.6%.”

2) “Risk on”: The voracious search for higher yields: “With interest rates globally still low by historical standards, cash-rich investors are on the lookout for higher-yielding assets.  Total household wealth is growing more rapidly in Asia than elsewhere globally, up 4.5% in 2016 to $80 trillion,”

4) China developments

Two fascinating highlights on China:

1) “Of the more than 11,000 public-private partnerships that China has announced since 2014-inwhich companies finance, build and manage commercially viable state ventures-88% remain in preliminary stages and none are complete,” (link)

2) “Since coming to power in late 2012, Mr Xi has eroded the consensus-driven, collective-leadership model of his recent predecessors, taking personal charge of the military, the economy and most other levers of power.” (link)

5) Equity Markets

Two fascinating highlights on China:

1) “The declines paused a rally that has sent the index to 19 fresh highs in 2017-its most records in a year since 1999,” (link)

2) “Companies in the S&P 500 traded at about 22 times their past 12 months of earnings as of Wednesday, above their 10-year average of 15.8,”

3) “The S&P 500 has a forward price/earnings ratio of 17.6, the highest multiple since 2004 and above the averages of the past five, 10, 15 and 20 years.“(link)

Organic Farming: The high labor cost problem

U.S. farmers are quite good at conventional farming where emphasis is placed on efficiency.  But consumer demand has been shifting towards organic food, which is less efficient to farm, and requires higher labor costs.

(Data source: UC Davis)

Naturally countries with cheap labor will have a competitive advantage on the U.S.   Consequently, U.S. farmers have been feeling the pressure from international organic farmers.

“Organic grain is flooding into the U.S., depressing prices and drawing complaints from domestic organic farmers…” (link)

Specifically, the article talks about pressure from Turkish farmers.

“Turkey vaulted ahead to become by far the biggest supplier of organic corn and soybeans to the U.S. last year…(they) shipped to the U.S. 400,000 metric tons of organic corn, nearly quadrupling its prior-year total, while soybean shipments climbed by more than eight times,”

It’s beneficial to dwell on Turkey for a moment because Turkish farming data helps highlight the competitive challenges that U.S. organic farmers face.  Firstly, Turkey’s minimum wage is $6,000/year giving them a competitive advantage in labor-intensive crop production.  Secondly, the barriers to entry into organic farming are nearly non-existent.  From 2002 to 2014 Turkey’s Organic Farming area increased at an annual growth rate of 22.56%.

And from 2005 to 2012, organic production went from 421,934 tons to 1,750,127 tons. (link)

(Data Source: USDA)

It would seem that the shift to organic farming is akin to switching from industrial production lines to hand craftsmanship.  The countries with the cheapest labor would naturally have the upper hand.

Note: Additional factors which have added to the pain for U.S. organic farmers include a strong U.S. dollar, and accusations that international organic farmers face weaker regulatory oversight.

Activist Defense Strategy?

Management can sometimes react poorly to unwanted activist investors, leading them to make poor economic/ethical decisions.  The following case got me thinking about the possibility that management may revert to unscrupulous methods to increase revenue at a poorly performing unit in order to save it from activist pressures.

ABB Hit by Fraud in South Korea (lInk): “The disclosure (of stolen funds) adds to the pressure on CEO Ulrich Spiesshofer as he tries to fend off Swedish activist shareholder Cevian Capital.  ABB  in recent weeks announced a string of large orders at its power-grid unit, including a $640 million project to deliver an electricity-transmission link in India, but Cevian has been urging ABB to sell the unit.

From the management’s perspective, it would be easier to defeat activist shareholders if the under-performing unit started “out-performing”.  Incentives of this kind may increase the likelihood of unethical revenue enhancement tactics like

  1. Channel stuffing or
  2. Signing sweetheart contracts that are overly generous to clients.

Both of these tactics would make the unit appear more successful just long enough to win over shareholder support and stave off activist shareholders.

I’m not saying that ABB is doing this, but from a standpoint of “incentive-caused bias”, it’s more apt to happen.  I’d like to see a study on this topic.

Don’t try to “out-Bezos Bezos”

“We’re not going to out-Bezos Bezos,” Buffett said, in response to a question about the effect of online retail on traditional retailers.

It feels like a lot of retailers are trying to out-Bezos Bezos these days.

Wal-Mart: “The retail behemoth is investing billions to raise U.S. store worker wages, lower prices and expand e-commerce sales to better compete with Amazon.com Inc.” (link)

Target: “Target’s CEO vowed to invest billions of dollars to lower prices and remodel hundreds of stores, an admission that the retailer’s focus on trendy merchandise wasn’t enough to attract shoppers.” (link)

Charlie Munger: Slime Pricing Theory

Great example of pricing theory under pavlovian association and information inefficiencies.

Knead Slime? These Business Girls Can Fix you Up (link)

“Just now, she is puzzling over price theory.  She asks 50 cents an ounce-a generous handful-but some friends charge more than twice that.  ‘They’re getting more sales and I’m not sure why,’ says the seventh-grader in Issaquah, Wash. ‘My slime is the same quality'”

Charlie Munger: Bias from pavlovian association

“In many cases when you raise the price of the alternative products, it’ll get a larger market share than it would when you make it lower than your competitor’s product. That’s because the bell, a Pavlovian bell — I mean ordinarily there’s a correlation between price and value — then you have an information inefficiency. And so when you raise the price, the sales go up relative to your competitor. That happens again and again and again. It’s a pure Pavlovian phenomenon.” (link)

Social Change becomes Economically Viable

Corporations are rarely agents for social change…even if they pretend like they are.  Rather they’re economic agents who weigh supply and demand issues carefully.  Demand for a socially beneficial product or service usually needs to hit critical mass (aka “The Tipping Point“) before companies “make that change“.  Here are some social changes which have reached critical mass and have become economically viable.

1) Large increases in organic farming (link)

2) Coca-Cola reducing its sugar footprint (link)

3) Tyson eliminating antibiotics (link)

Charlie Munger: The prognosticator of Brazilian graft

I read this article on Brazilian graft and I couldn’t help but be reminded of a talk Charlie Munger gave back in 2003.  The scenario he gave for bribing a purchasing agent is almost identical to the problems which were uncovered in Brazil 12 years later.

Charlie Munger:

“Now tell me several instances when, if you want the physical volume to go up, the correct answer is to increase the price?…Suppose you raise that price, and use the extra money to bribe the other guy’s purchasing agent?” (link)

Now here’s what happened in Brazil…

“As part of Operation Car Wash, Brazilian prosecutors have accused executives from Petrobras, the state-run oil company, and some of the nation’s largest construction firms of colluding for more than a decade to inflate the price of contracts, kicking back a portion of the ill-gotten gains to lawmakers and other political officials.”(link)

Caution: A.I. will be programmed to exploit your psychological biases

Watch out for a future where Artificial Intelligence is programmed to exploit your psychological biases better than any human can.  Charlie Munger warns heavily about this kind of psychology manipulation:

“Now if the human mind, on a subconscious level, can be manipulated that way and you don’t know it, I always use the phrase, “You’re like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.” I mean you are really giving a lot of quarter to the external world that you can’t afford to give.” (link)

It has already started on a small scale:

“Stanford University found a male computerized voice was perceived to be a better teacher of computers, while a female one was preferred for guidance on love and relationships.” (link)

“There’s also the potential subconscious influence.  Are we more likely to buy Alexa’s Valentine’s Day gift suggestions if they’re delivered by a female voice?  Will a male voice convince us to spring for an expensive leaf blower?”

Teens Use Video Chat to Hang Out (link)

Fascinating insights into teen smartphone use:

“73% of teens have access to a smartphone…Those teens are checking their phones on average more than 80 times a day,”

“Packed schedules, helicopter parenting, and the decline of walkable neighborhoods…The net effect is that teens are spending more time indoors, and les active, than ever.”

“Young people today are sedentary for more than 10 hours a day,”

“Gracie says she’ll turn off the TV and talk to friends if they turn up on Houseparty ‘because that’s just better.’

“who wouldn’t want to be able to check in with their best friends whenever they felt like it?

Quote of the week:

“There were no negative tweets, so that’s a good sign.” – Portfolio Manager in response to Bayer’s CEO meeting with Mr. Trump. (link)

Wall Street Journal Recap: January 30 – February 5, 2017

/ Richard Lewis / Leave a comment

My full notes and analysis on the Wall Street Journal from the past week: January 30-February 5, 2017 (Week 5).  Please Enjoy.

Donald Trump: “I love depreciation”

Trump on Depreciation

“I love depreciation,” he said in the second presidential debate last October. (link)

“Every other country lives on devaluation,…They play the devaluation market and we sit there like a bunch of dummies.”

“Mr. Trump suggested Tuesday that Japan and China are devaluing their currencies.”

“The U.S. dollar slid to its lowest level since November on Tuesday amid weak U.S. data and new indications that the Trump administration would prefer a weaker dollar.” (link)

Japan depreciation

“The Kyoto-based company (Nintendo) reported net profit of 64.7 billion yen, more than double the year-earlier level, a figure it said was boosted by the weak yen.” (link)

Mexico depreciation

“Further peso weakness could make the country even more competitive globally.”…”A weakening peso would again give them even more of a competitive edge” (link)

Banking Moral Hazard

Should we start worrying about moral hazard at banks again?  I’m beginning to think the answer is yes.  There’s just too much incentive for banks to game the system.  Take this for example:

“Banks must pass the Fed’s stress tests in order to boost dividends or buybacks to shareholders.” (link)

Here’s what makes that simple point very worrisome:

  1. Banks are being incentivized to game the system in order to boost dividends or buybacks.
  2. They are using the same consultants who helped them avoid Basel II capital requirements before the financial crisis.
  3. The stress test models offer false precision: “What models cannot measure is the chance that banks all act as a herd — creating financial panics.” (link)
  4. The Fed is considerably intertwined with the stress tests. Should anything go wrong, they will feel responsible for bank failures and ultimately bail them out again.

Focus on What You Can Control

I always love Amazon’s approach:

“There’s always a number of things that can impact customer spending, both positively and negatively during any quarter,” said CFO Brian Olsavsky on a conference call. “What we do, is continue to focus on the things we can directly control: for us that’s price, selection, customer experience. And on those dimensions we felt we made great progress.” (link)

Exxon: Agency Costs

Exxon is unbelievably good at limiting agency costs and aligning management with long-term shareholder interests.  Just check out these two examples:

Policy on Writedowns:

“Exxon hadn’t booked a decline in the value of its assets since at least 1990.  This is due in part to the company’s practice of being more conservative when initially recognizing the value of new oil and gas that it discovers,” (link)

“The company’s senior leaders wanted to avoid writedowns because in accounting terms, they have the effect of making the company’s investments appear more profitable,”

“We don’t do write-downs,” former Chief Executive Rex Tillerson told trade publication Energy Intelligence in 2015.  “We are not going to bail you out by writing it down. That is the message to our organization.”

Policy on Executive Stock Options:

“Half of the equity award may not be sold for 10 years from date of grant or until retirement, whichever is later, and the other half is restricted from sale for five years.” (link)

Very Low VIX = Very Low Returns

Historically speaking,

“stocks have done poorly in the year following very low VIX levels.  The S&P’s annual gain has been 2.7% after the 100 lowest readings and nearly 29% after the 100 highest readings.  The overall average was 8.8%.”

“A low VIX isn’t in and of itself worrisome, but the “calm before the storm” idea has some basis in history. Some of the lowest historical VIX readings preceded sharp, unexpected stock selloffs such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 1994 interest rate scare.”

Japan and the Weimar Republic

I couldn’t help but think that Japan’s monetary policy draws parallel’s to the Weimar Republic.

When the Weimar Republic went off the gold standard, there became no legal limit as to how many notes it could print.  And print they did.

Meanwhile, the BOJ wants to buck a global tide of rising rates, and have announced “it would buy an unlimited-number of five- and 10-year government bonds at prices that translate to a benchmark yield of around 0.110%.” And buy they did.  (link)

How long can the Rising Sun fight a Rising Tide of interest rates?

Ferrari: The Boundaries of Brand Dilution

It’s less than 2 years since Ferrari’s IPO, and the race to test the boundaries of brand dilution is on.

Historically Ferrari has established brand equity through exclusivity.  Just as recently as 2013, head of Ferrari, Luca di Montezemolo, announced plans to sell fewer cars in 2013 than the 7000 it delivered in 2012.

Luca stated, ‘this is a far-sighted decision to strengthen our brand equity, from what I learned from Enzo Ferrari… We must resist people who say the competition will benefit from us making fewer cars… When others penetrate our markets, we are happy to meet this challenge.’ (link)

In 2014, the company sold 7,255 cars.  That year, Luca resigned following tension with Sergio Marchionne.

By 2016, the number of cars shipped increased to 8,4000.  Sergio Marchionne believes he could boost production up to 10,000 cars. (link)

At the moment, Ferrari cannot sell more than 10,000 cars a year because of emission standards.  I suspect however that electric vehicles will ultimately be exempt from this number, giving Ferrari an open path to even more significant brand dilution.

Ralph Lauren: Brand Dilution

As Ferrari tests the boundaries of Brand Dilution, many fashion retailers, like Ralph Lauren, are desperately trying to recuperate brand equity after years of brand-destructive strategies.

”Ralph Lauren said it remains committed to Mr. Larsson’s restructuring plan, which has included limiting discounting, lowering inventory and reducing the number of products the company is selling.”

Know the key drivers within your industry: Coal

Key Drivers within the Coal Industry.

1) Demand and Competition from China

Chinese consumption and production policies have a huge impact on coal prices.  Here’s what’s happened in just the past year:

Coal Prices Tripled: “International prices for metallurgical coal tripled in 2016 from a decade low.  Rule changes in China that limited work in mines, mine retirements in Australia and U.S. production cutbacks sparked the rally. Many troubled mines were suddenly profitable.”

Coal Prices Halved: “Coal prices have tumbled by nearly half since November, after China relaxed restrictions on the number of days mines can be open…”

2) Government Regulatory Environment.

The House voted to “repeal a rule that limited companies from dumping mining waste in streams.  The coal industry views the environmental rule as burdensome regulation.”

“It’s a very optimistic time now for the coal market because those regulations are being pushed back,”

3) How fast can coal miners ramp up production and re-open plants?

“…mines world-wide have already ramped up output to take advantage of the rally in prices.”

Toshiba: Learning from Other People’s Mistakes (OPM)

Warren Buffett has said that’s it’s best to learn from “other people’s mistakes” as much as possible.  Well I think there’s much to learn from Toshiba’s perilous venture into nuclear energy.

Toshiba’s nuclear ambitions made for a great investment story.  They planned to leverage Westinghouse’s nuclear reactor design to reduce costs by cranking out many “cookie-cutter” power plants.  This low cost strategy, combined booming demand, would lead many investors towards an optimistic view of the company.

At first things started out well:

“Southern chose Westinghouse’s design for the first new nuclear plant to be built in the U.S. in 30 years, and the next month Scana also chose the AP1000 for a plant in South Carolina.” (link)

But eventually the twin pillars of Toshiba’s plan, low cost and booming demand, eventually dissolved leaving them with losses that could approach $6 billion.  How did this happen?

Their misery stemmed from two major sources:

  1. Replicating Errors: Any error in their cookie cutter power plant design was replicated throughout all the power plants they were building.  Leading to very costly mistakes. (link)
  2. Stagnation: The nuclear industry has stagnated or declined in most every country but China.  Largely as a result of Fukushima and political headwinds.  This lead to increasingly ferocious competition.

We should learn to watch out for:

  1. Very large tail risk (Fukushima)
  2. Political risk
  3. Execution risk (Difficulties of Implementing the strategy)
  4. Investing outside of your circle of competence.
    1. I would not have seen the risks of replicating design errors in the reactor design.

Other major issues from this story:

  1. Toshiba exposed themselves to unlimited losses: The deal restricted Westinghouse’s ability to “seek further increases in the contract price,” Southern said—meaning that if the nuclear plant couldn’t be completed in a timely manner, Toshiba would shoulder the costs.
  2. Toshiba had a high profile accounting scandal in 2015 (link): Warren Buffett says, “In the world of business, bad news often surfaces serially: you see a cockroach in your kitchen; as the days go by, you meet his relatives,”

This Week in Human Misjudgment: Pavlovian Association

Currently lots of human misjudgment centered around anybody involved with Trump.  For example:

“Uber Technologies Inc.’s chief executive, Travis Kalanick, said he is stepping down from President Donald Trump’s economic advisory council, saying that his participation has been misunderstood as an endorsement of the new administration’s policies.” (link)

“The announcement “follows criticism of the ride-hailing firm over perceptions that it supports the Trump Administration, with some celebrities and others using social media to call for people to delete Uber’s smartphone app.”

Under-estimating risk:

Be wary of trading strategies.  Many often underestimate the risk involved.  Here’s one example of where it may be occurring:

“It really came down to the leverage,” said Mr. Skalak on why he switched from stocks to futures.  On a good day, Mr. Skalak said he can make $600 to $1,000.  He pulls out of the market if his daily losses approach $400, a policy he adopted after some steep losses.” (link)

First: His strategy is likely dependent on being able to pull out of the market in a calm and orderly fashion.  During market panics however, liquidity can dry up and severe fluctuations can wipe out years of profits like it did to the Carry Trade back in 2008.

“These rare and unexpected changes in the market, such as the sudden devaluation of a currency, can wipe out years of accumulated gains. Thus, higher interest rates in the lent currency may be the payoff for bearing the risk of a peso event. But determining the effect of an unlikely future event is something of an experimental nightmare.” (link)

The carry trade is often described as “picking up pennies in front of a truck,”

Second: This trader sough out a strategy where he could apply a great deal of leverage, but here’s a few warnings against leverage:

  1. What Ever Happened to Rick Guerin?
  2. LTCM Case Study

Currency Swaps & Interest Rates

Very insightful article into the relationship of currency swap and interest rates.

Foreign bond investors measure investment attractiveness by the hedged yield differential.  Therefore, to understand the demand for bonds from foreign investors, you have to know both the yield differential and the cost of hedging currency risk with currency swaps.

Example: (link)

“At the end of January, a 10-year U.S. bond yielded around 2 percentage points more than its German equivalent and 2.4 percentage points more than a Japanese bond.”

“But if investors fully hedged themselves against currency exposure, the pickup in yield would disappear completely. After that cost, a U.S. 10-year bond would offer a yield 0.06 percentage point lower than a domestic equivalent for an investor with euros, and 0.7 percentage point lower for a Japanese investor.”

“The relative attractiveness hasn’t increased as much as the nominal difference in yields suggests,” added Mr. Inkinen.

“Hedging an investment mutes its impact on the exchange rate, but if Japanese and European investors want to benefit from higher yields on bonds elsewhere in the world—particularly U.S. Treasurys—they would have to buy more bonds unhedged against currency risk.”

Market Developments

  1. Bullish Oil Bets Climb to Record (link): ” Long positions exceeded shorts by such a degree that it’s the largest net bullish position in 10 years of data from the CFTC.”
  2. Strong demand for Italian commercial real estate (link): Investing in Italy “is a way to move up the risk curve and deliver returns promised to investors,”
  3. Investment Grade Bond mania: “Investment-grade companies have sold $146 billion of bonds this year, the most for any comparable period on record going back to 1995,”
  4. Systemic Risk in China’s lending environment (link): The default “rippled through the world’s largest internet investment marketplace, hitting investors who hadn’t even bought the securities.”…Individuals seeking higher returns invest in these unregulated securities with a few swipes on their phone.
  5. WeWork is just a duration mismatch? hmm… (link): WeWork’s “business model is to sign long-term leases with landlords, but take short-term rents from its own tenants, meaning that revenue is volatile and losses could pile up in a recession.”
  6. Businesses are struggling to charge more (link): The Fed noted earlier this month that “increases in input costs were more widespread than increases in final good prices” – an indication that businesses are struggling to charge more.”
  7. The Facebook IPO still haunts the Nasdaq (link): “…since the glitch-filled IPO of Facebook Inc. on the exchange in 2012, NYSE has landed the majority of the dollar volume raised in tech IPOs valued at $1 billion or more,”

Oh Mon Dieu…

Think about this the next time you examine your daily habits.

“EA said its mobile game “Star Wars: Heroes of the Galaxy” was a significant driver of digital sales, with fans now spending an average of 155 minutes a day playing it.”

In the course of a year, that equates to 16 hours per day for 59 days straight of doing nothing but playing this video game.  Over the course of 60 years, that’s 9.7 years.

Statistic of the Week

“Americans now lose $500 million a year to street crime but $8 billion a year in ATM fees.”

Wall Street Journal Recap: January 23-29, 2017

/ Richard Lewis / Leave a comment

My full notes and analysis on the Wall Street Journal from the past week: January 23-29, 2017 (Week 4).  Please Enjoy.

Ruthless pricing formula in Pharma:

When general economic principles are applied to Pharma, the outcome looks ruthless in nature.  For example:

According to this quote, drug pricing has nothing to do with cost of development, or the amount of supply, but rather the demand generated due to the effectiveness of saving lives.

“Mr. McMahon said the price was justified by the improved average survival benefit the drug provides for patients with certain cancers.” (link)

Furthermore, drugs for rare diseases have the best pricing power.

“If you have blockbuster drugs in a rare disease area that’s shown to be more immune to pricing pressure, that is a very valuable asset to have,” said Jefferies analyst Peter Welford. (link)

The Rise of the “New and Now” Consumer

A trend is emerging in retail.  Customers want it “new” and they want it “now”. Whether you’re in consumer goods, video games, or luxury goods, consumers are becoming increasingly impatient and bored.

Here are how some companies are adapting:

Unilever:

“Unilever hopes the move will make it more nimble in responding to local tastes or trends.” (link)

Supercell (Clash of Clans):

“Five months later, Mr. Paananen says Supercell has fixed problems, paying more attention to customer complaints and refreshing its handful of games more often.” (link)

“He said the episode underscores how competition has risen in the sector, increasing pressure on developers to produce ever more attractive games.”

“All the companies, including Supercell, have to find new ways to get new users,” Mr. Hiltunen said.

“When players return to their games, there should be something new,” he said.

PepsiCo:

“The clear plastic bottles will feature textured labels by emerging artists, including the street artist known as Momo, with new designs introduced every few months.”…”PepsiCo hopes the revolving designs will prompt young people to share images of the bottles on social media.” (link)

Fashion (Burberry):

“Luxury consumers, including in China, are increasingly choosing innovation over tradition.  Burberry reported last week that “fashion,” or newly designed items, outperformed sales of core products like its famous trench coats in the Christmas quarter.”  (link)

“This trend is a challenge for companies used to selling products on the basis of timeless appeal.”

Drivers of Luxury Good sales: Peace and Corruption

There are two fascinating insights from this article on luxury brands. (link)

1) Peace is good for business.  Terrorism is not.  High profile terrorist attacks reduce international travel.  When people travel they spend more on luxury goods.  “Chinese and U.S. tourists who don’t travel abroad are less likely to splurge,”

Terrorism = Less International Travel = Less Luxury Brand Sales

2) Corruption is good for business.  A Crackdown on corruption reduces luxury goods sales.  China instituted a stiff crackdown on corruption which led to less luxury brand sales.

Lower Corruption = Less Luxury Brand Sales

Are luxury brands over-extending themselves?

More and more brand names seem to be expanding the price range of their product offerings.  This strategy of offering products at lower and lower price points can increase sales in the short-term, but it can also contribute to brand dilution in the long-term.  The Range Rover Evoque & Mercedes CLA are two possible examples.

This strategy is very similar to retailers like Michael Kors and Coach who embraced the outlet store model.  It helped revenue growth (and stock price) in the short term, but the growth was an illusion and it severely damaged each of their brands.  Their outlet strategies proved to be nothing more than a complete exploitation and degradation of years of goodwill.

Ferris Bueller’s ‘Oh Yeah’ Song Seeded Investing Fortune

Got to like the Buffett-like logic of these investments. (link)

1) BVZ Holding AG:

“Mr. Meier’s banker father offered advice.  A growing middle class in Asia, he said, meant more Asian tourists would be coming to see the Matterhorn in southern Switzerland.  So Mr. Meier bought a large stake in a railway company, BVZ Holding AG, that now takes them there.”

2) Orell Fussli Holding AG:

“Another piece of fatherly advice: ‘As long as Switzerland exists, we will always print our own money.’  So Mr. Meier obtained a stake, which FactSet now values at about $37 million, in Orell Fussli Holding AG, the company that prints Swiss Francs.  He is the firm’s second-largest shareholder, behind the Swiss National Bank.”

Pricing Power:

Warren Buffett says:

“The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power. If you’ve got the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, you’ve got a very good business. And if you have to have a prayer session before raising the price by 10 percent, then you’ve got a terrible business.”

Strong Pricing Power

Merck (link): “Last year, Merck raised list prices by an average of 9.6%, with an average net price increase of 5.5%.”

Weak Pricing Power

Nestle(link): “But Nestle and its rivals have struggled to boost volumes and lift prices amid consumers’ push for healthier fare and super-competitive markets.”

Declining Sales: Strategies

Here are five strategies being used to fight/cope with declining sales.

1) Cut costs

Caution: Cost cutting might lead to under-investment and result in (1) a further slowdown in long-term sales and (2) a need for large capital outlays in the future.

Unilever PLC (link): Reported slower sales growth last year, spooking investors…Last year, Unilever started its own cost-cutting campaign, including so-called “zero-base budgeting-a management practice based on justifying all costs from scratch each year.”

P&G (link): Years of cost-cutting only recently started to bear fruit.

Kimberly-Clark (link): Recently completed a cost-cutting plan aimed at saving $140 million annually.  But it said earlier this week it still forecasts tepid sales growth for 2017.

Norfolk Southern (link): Norfolk Southern posted a decline in revenue but notched higher profit in its fourth quarter as it cut costs, an effort it said it would continue as rival railway operators are pushed to take similar belt-tightening measures.”… “Norfolk Southern cut $250 million in annual costs in 2016 and plans to cut $100 million more this year.”

“Coal has been weighing on the railroad sector’s results”

2) Acquire high growth businesses

Caution: Often times this means over-paying.

Verizon(link): “Verizon needs to do a big deal to boost growth…The telecom giant is exploring a merger with Charter,”  “Charter’s wired broadband service passes 49 million homes and is growing even as the pay-TV market is shrinking.”

AT&T (link): AT&T’s deal to buy Time Warner is a tie-up that would transform the phone company into a media giant, helping it potentially find new areas of growth as its core wireless business has become saturated and its share of the mobile market leaves little room for acquisitions.”

Cisco (link): “Cisco is buying software company AppDynamics Inc. for $3.7 billion…at a big premium to bolster its software offerings to large enterprise customers.”

“Cisco has placed increasing importance on software.  The company has long held a dominant share of sales of the routing and switching equipment used to funnel data over the internet and between computers in data centers.  As competitors enter the market with less expensive options, Cisco has focused on other business lines such as security, collaboration and the “Internet of Things.”

3) Acquire a company to smooth revenue and profits

Caution: Impatience (time) based acquisitions are often expensive.

J&J (link): “J&J has said it has several new drugs in development that could offset any revenue loss from this rivalry, but the Actelion acquisition would more quickly help plug that hole.”

4) Spin off underperforming divisions

Caution: Beware of selling too the division too low.

Intel (link): “It also agreed to sell 51% of its underperforming security division to private-equity firm TPG for $4.2 billion.  Intel expects the two moves to create $1 billion in savings in the coming year.”

Novartis: “Novartis AG is considering spinning off its ailing eye-care business Alcon, one year into a slower-than-expected turn-around for that business.”…”The potential spinoff comes seven years after Novartis gained full ownership of Alcon (for $51.6 billion), a move that it had hoped would allow it to capitalize on the fast-growing eye-care market.”…”The decision comes as the company struggles to revive growth at Alcon.”

5) Adapt to shifting consumer demands and develop a new advertising strategy

Nestle (link): “Nestle SA is betting reduced sugar and a new advertising strategy will boost sales amid a growing consumer backlash against sweet drinks.”

Return Expectations

“With dividend yields about 2.5% for the Dow and 2% for the S&P, not far from historic lows, and stocks trading at almost 29 times inflation-adjusted multiyear profits, or well above their long-term average of about 16, it seems prudent to expect tepid-maybe even putrid-returns for years to come.” (link)

Corruption at Wells Fargo

The corruption at Wells Fargo can be boiled down to:

Past success + high draconian expectations + a lapse in oversight = Ripe environment for corrupt practices.

P.S. Why does this formula remind me of China?  Past success, draconian growth demands, large lapses in oversight…

The Wells Fargo story is pretty wild, here are some of the best quotes(link):

“Managers and employees at the bank’s roughly 6,000 branches across the U.S. typically had at least 24 hours’ warning about annual reviews conducted by risk employees,”…”That gave many employees time to cover up improper practices, such as opening accounts or signing customers up for products without their knowledge.”

“You became numb to it,…it became pretty normal.”

“Growing the business was primary: The more successful you were, the higher the goals were.  So you had to keep up.”

Investment lesson:

Pay close attention to internal corporate performance goals & oversight.  Are the demands too unrealistic and draconian?  Are there lapses in oversight?

Government Debt & Growth Assumptions: A Disaster

Thomas Jefferson said, “To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt.”

When governments are allowed to borrow based on assumptions of growth, they inevitably set us up for disaster.  Why?  Because they use “naive extrapolation” in their assumptions.  Naive extrapolation assumes that growth will persist, nearly indefinitely.  But the fact of the matter is that growth will eventually slow.  Economies or companies that aren’t prepared for this eventually are devastated.

This undesirable fate has now befallen the U.S. Virgin Islands.  Just check out a few of their problems:

Between 2007 to 2013, tourism feel 19%, a drop of $280 million. During that period the territory’s population shrank by almost 9%.

“With less revenue, the territory has relied increasingly on bond proceeds to pay operating costs while contributing less to pension plans. That borrowing has increased its debt to a level similar to that of Puerto Rico, on a per capita basis.”

“That pension plan has only 27% of what it needs to pay future benefits, according to 2015 financial statements; a 2015 analysis by Segal Consulting predicted the fund would run out of money by 2024.”

What might they have to do to get out of their financial predicament?

1) Sell off key assets.

2) Raise taxes.

3) Cut funding to pension plans, schools, etc.

Investing Lessons:

(1) Beware of naive extrapolation of past growth rates.

(2) Use a margin of safety

(3) Warren Buffett said, “If you buy things you do not need, soon you will have to sell things you need.”

i.e. If you’re looking for investment bargains, look at distressed countries and companies who will be forced to sell things that they need to pay for the things they didn’t.

(4) Remember what happens when you assume things?

 

Wall Street Journal Recap: January 17-22, 2017

/ Richard Lewis / 1 Comment

My full notes and analysis on the Wall Street Journal from the past week: January 17-22, 2017 (Week 3).  Please Enjoy.

Buffett & AIG

AIG paid Berkshire Hathaway $10 billion to bring “stability to their balance sheet” and gives them “greater certainty”.  (link)

Meanwhile, Warren Buffett has said, “We pay a high price for certainty.”  Howard Marks added to this comment, “People who want to buy bargains should prefer uncertainty.”

Translation: AIG paid a high price and Buffett got a bargain.

China & Autocatalytic Reactions

China’s economy achieved yet another year of “stable” GDP growth, but their growth comes at the expense of increasing disorder everywhere else in their economy.  This type of behavior is known as an “autocatalytic reaction.”, which is a mental model that I now use to think about China’s economy.

Autocatalytic Reaction: “Order can be created in a system by an even greater decrease in order of the systems surroundings…The order of the Earth’s atmosphere increases, but at the expense of the order of the sun. The sun is becoming more disorderly as it ages and throws off light and material to the rest of the universe.” (wikipedia)

China creates GDP Stability at the expense of Economic Chaos everywhere else.  Below are examples of China’s autocatalytic economy in action.

“GDP Stability”

  1. IMF Raises Growth Forecast for U.S. Economy (link)

“(China) is laboring to keep growth chugging along…the government used its long-worn playbook of state policies to stimulate growth.”

  1. China Hits Growth Goal On Big Does of Stimulus (link)

“Beijing is expected to double down on old growth drivers this year – including fiscal spending and the property market- to keep the economy stable in an important year of leadership change.”

“Beijing posted the lowest annual growth in a quarter-century, and economists say it only got there by relying heavily on short-term measures that are likely to delay much-needed reforms to bloated state-owned companies and the country’s inefficient financial system.”

“Economic Chaos”

  1. A Risky Twist on Repo Trade in China (link)

These “dai chi” agreements are outrageous…Used to temporarily move funds around in order to skirt government audits, as well as take on more risk.  Doesn’t this sound familiar to AIG and credit default swaps?

“A little-regulated practice that companies have used to borrow hundreds of billions of dollars and move risky assets temporarily off their book.”

“The risk is that dai chi agreements tend to be informal and often don’t leave a paper trail.”

“These transactions, by one estimate, may easily top $1 Trillion in value.  The practice is just one of the many unexpected risks that have sprouted up in China’s long credit boom.”

China’s credit boom has “helped send Chinese bond prices to a 14 year high in mid-August and pumped up markets for everything from iron ore to garlic.”

“Traders say the deals are so opaque that even estimates are hard to make.”

“Banks sometimes use the dai chi agreements to move risky assets temporarily off their books during earnings periods or audits, the people said.  Brokers like Sealand typically use them to borrow quickly and flexibly-leveraging their investments many times over,”

  1. Copper Tethered to Dollars’ Moves (link)

Chinese investors are grasping for any investments to get their money out of China or the Yuan.  As a result, they are creating volatile and unusual behavior in Copper prices, among other asset classes.

“Metals and other commodities that are priced in dollars tend to fall when the dollar appreciates…But copper and the dollar have been moving nearly in lockstep recently, a phenomenon that many analysts attribute to rising appetite for copper among Chinese investors seeking to protect their wealth against the risk of a sharp Yuan depreciation against other global currencies, primarily the dollar.”

“In November, the correlation between copper and the WSJ Dollar Index reached its highest level since 2007.”

“In five hours on one day, we say (copper) prices trade in a range that would normally take a year” to play out.

  1. Bitcoin Trading Faces Greater Scrutiny in China (link)

“China is trying to limit the ability of Chinese individuals and companies to move their wealth abroad, a trend that contributes to a depreciating Chinese yuan and risks destabilizing the broader financial system.”

Trump & China

If Trump stops China from dumping highly subsided products into our markets (link), I think he’ll unintentionally destroy the lynch-pin holding together China’s economy…highly subsidized factories.

To give more detail to this picture, this is what I imagine much of China’s economy looks like:

  1. China’s local governments fund themselves by land sales and real estate development. But the land is only valuable if there are people and jobs.
  2. The easiest way to create jobs is to subsidize industries which can generate LOTS of jobs, like steel production. Steel production creates jobs in mining, transportation, energy, engineering, and of course factory workers.
  3. With lots of people working, or soon to be working, demand for real estate skyrockets. This in turn creates more jobs because workers are needed to build all this new real estate.
  4. It might be ok if only a few cities in China used this model, but I believe this to be pervasive. As a result, China is creating WAY too much steel and other products.  With an oversupply of subsidized goods, they must dump them into U.S., and global markets for whatever prices they can get.

If the Trump administration stops China from dumping its highly subsidized products into the U.S., subsidized factories all over China will quickly implode and take entire cities with it.  Being so highly leveraged, China is not in a position to handle the impact of such an event.

This of course is just my hypothesis, and I welcome any disconfirming evidence.

“Retail Meritocracy” & Deteriorating Moats

It feels like we’ve entered a new area that I’d like to call “retail meritocracy”.  Brand names use to serve an important role in signaling both value and quality to consumers.  But with easy access to internet reviews and scores, brand name goodwill seems to be rapidly deteriorating for many companies.

Luxottica appears to be a good example.  Luxottica has a dominant position in the old world distribution and marketing platform of sunglasses and eyewear.  In this old model, floor space and brand names served as a solid barrier to entry.  But there’s been a trend towards commoditization of sunglasses and eyewear as consumers become more comfortable with buying off-brand names like Warby Parker.  Online reviews, ratings, etc. have weakened Luxottica’s competitive moat.

  1. Merger to Create Eyewear Giant (link)

“The merger joins two companies that previously risked stepping on each other’s toes as Luxottica expanded into lens manufacturing and Essilor moved into frames…both companies could shrink because of a harsher price competition for frames and lenses.”

  1. Why Golfers Covet the Costco Ball (link)

In another example of “retail meritocracy”, Kirkland brand golf balls became a hot selling items when it was discovered that they perform nearly as good as Titleist Pro VI golf balls.  “This is just a perception killer,”  The Kirkland golf balls retailed for $1.25/ball, while Pro VI’s retailed for ~$4/ball.

We  have entered a time of retail meritocracy where many brand-name-moats are being eroded more quickly than anticipated.

Know what’s being measured

It’s important to know what’s being measured.  Sometimes we forget.  Here are some examples:

  1. Private Prison Industry Gets Boost From Election (link)

A likely example of lying with statistics.

The DOJ found that private prisons were more dangerous than government-run facilities.

“Contractors criticized the report, saying it compared private and government-run prisons even thought they house different types of criminals.”

“The private facilities are dominated by lower-security, illegal immigrants who have committed crimes, a demographic in which gangs are prevalent.”

  1. Rocky Route for Rail Line (link)

“If you cut 30 minutes off, I’d be for it,”

Note: Nowhere in his comment does this frequent Amtrak traveler consider the $120 billion cost.

  1. Fed Officials Shift focus on Growth (link)

When the Fed and U.S. Government talk about the success of their economic programs they largely speak of 1) an increase in overall demand and 2) a reduction in unemployment.  When they say the economy is “healed”, they are likely measuring it by overall demand and unemployment numbers.

Global Growth Fuels Netflix Surge (link)

“The streaming video giant has prioritized growth over profit as it pursues its international rollout”

Success is being measured by user growth…which is the same metric used by Netflix’s competitors.  All of its competitors are foregoing profits for revenues…

Oops! When Little Errors = Big Mistakes.

Two examples of little mistakes that lead to big errors.

  1. Student-Debt Picture Darkens (link)

The U.S. government WAY underestimated how many students have “defaulted on or failed to pay back their college loans.”

Previous numbers “overstated repayment rates for 99.8% of all colleges and trade schools in the country.”

“The new analysis shows that at more than 1,000 colleges and trade schools, or about a quarter of the total, at least half the students had defaulted or failed to pay down at least $1 on their debt within seven years.”

In 2015, the reported number was 347 colleges.  Today it stands at 1,029.

  1. Afghan Payroll Cut in Corruption Fight (link)

The U.S. military was paying 30,000 Afghan soldiers that didn’t exist!  That came out to $13 million per month.  Now, the U.S. military will only pay Afghan soldiers who were biometrically enrolled in the nation’s army.

The Growth Promise

Why does it seem that troubled companies always insist upon expanding into growth markets?  Why are they so eager to grow a business model with fundamental problems?  Examples include:

  1. Pearson Drops as Future Darkens (link)

“Pearson said its revenue fell 30% in the fourth quarter making for a full-year decline of 18% that it called unprecedented.”

“…which has put pressure on Pearson’s business even as it seeks new sources of growth in emerging economies such as Brazil and China.”

  1. Can Revlon Regain Some of Its Lost Luster? (link)

“One way Mr. Garcia intends to lessen Revlon’s reliance on the U.S. is by entering China.”

I’m Curious. Is this an Accounting Illusion, Real, or Both?

Railroad Mavrick Buoys Investors (link)

I’m curious about this case.  I wonder if Mr. Harrison’s operating efficiencies are real or are merely accounting related.  After all, he’s able to do what no one else in the industry is capable of doing, which should raise some questions.

“Each time the message was similar: Mr. Harrison has proved himself able to cut costs and improve operations and is a better executive than you current team.”

 Irrational Exuberance

On the backs of the second longest bull-market in history, artificially low interest rates have created intense competition among investors for any yield whatsoever.  Furthermore, ultra-low interest rates have incentivized land-lords not to sell, which has reduced supply and intensified competition further.

  1. Texas Billionaires Joined to Strike Deal (link)

Plano Texas’s raw land has gone from $8 to $10 a square foot a few years ago to $60 today.  Due to growing appeal to corporate tenants.

“The property attracted the attention of about 40 investors.”

Ultimately it was won by the investor able to secure a high loan to equity ratio.

“It’s unusual for an investor group to be able to borrow such a high percentage of a deal’s value, as Mr. Ware’s group did.

Participants said it worked because the bank will get an equity like return if the group hits the “jackpot” with the new leasing and land development.

  1. Investors Pump In Cash But Supply Is Lacking (link)

Investors piling money in: “Investors are piling money into real estate funds, but fund managers are finding it challenging to spend it.”

Hunt for returns in an Ultra low interest rate environment: “The record level of dry powder comes as investors increasingly have turned to commercial real estate in a hunt for returns.  Ultra low interest rates at global central banks have made returns on offices and shopping malls look attractive compared with other asset classes such as bonds.

On par with 2005 to 2008: “Global fund managers have raised $446 billion for commercial property in the past four years, on par with the total raised from 2005 to 2008 in the run-up to the global financial crisis,”

Fierce competition for few properties: “With competition for deals fierce, “it has been much more challenging to invest,”…”There are very few forced sellers,”

“Landlords aren’t willing to sell.  Their low debt levels and readily available bank financing have made it easy to hold on to properties longer in hopes of reaping bigger paydays later,”

Increasing demand: Deflation & Inflation

  1. ‘Rideables’ Could Curb Car Ownership (link)

Increased demand can have either an inflationary effect or a deflationary effect.  Which way it goes is largely dependent upon two factors:

1) The speed at which supply can expand to meet demand and

2) economies of scale.

In the case of electric vehicles, increasing demand has had a deflationary effect:

“…the rapid expansion of the market has led to demand for parts, making them in turn cheaper and more available, much like what happened with mobile phones.”

“batteries are getting cheaper at 4% to 8% a year, and that compounding over the last five years has had a massive impact” on the electronic-vehicle industry.

Meanwhile, increasing demand has had an inflationary effect on price of oil and gas service providers (link).

Significant Housing Developments

  1. Mortgage Lending Shift Spurs Worry Over Risk (link)

There’s been a big shift in the FHA lending market for single-family mortgage market over the past 10 years.

Topped $1 trillion: “Bonds backed by certain risky single-family mortgages topped $1 trillion for the first time in November, crossing that threshold amid warnings about that corner of the U.S. housing market.”

Banks have all but stopped participating: “The result: In the first three quarters of 2016, banks accounted for 9% of mortgage dollars originated by the FHA’s top 50 lenders, versus 62% for all of 2010, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. Nonbank lenders accounted for 80% of mortgage bonds backed by single-family FHA loans in July 2016, versus 9% the same month in 2010…This is the biggest shift in mortgage lending since the savings-and-loans debacle in the 1980’s.”

“It’s too costly to originate”: “J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., the nation’s largest bank by assets, isn’t among the 50 largest FHA lenders.  In 2013, it was the third largest,”…”It simply is too costly and too risky to originate these kinds of mortgages,” Jamie Diamon wrote.

FHA share of the mortgage market has tripled: “the FHA share of the overall mortgage market is larger than during the last housing boom.  In the years leading up to the housing bust, FHA loans accounted for less than 5% of annual mortgage volume.  Since the meltdown, the share has ranged from 11% to 15% of originations.

FHA loans under Ginnie Mae has Quadrupled since 2007: “That growth has boosted the amount of bonds Ginnie Mae backs. The $1 trillion of outstanding FHA single-family loans in November that it guaranteed compares with $272 billion at the end of 2007. Overall, Ginnie Mae now backs more than $1.7 trillion in bonds, which includes loans backed by other agencies such as the Department of Veterans Affairs as well as the FHA.”

Nonbank lending creates market risks: “The funding issue arises because nonbanks don’t hold deposits. So they rely on short-term financing, often from banks, mostly to originate new loans. That can dry up in stressed times.”

As Power Changes Hands, HUD Makes Swift Move (link)

The Trump administration seems likely to curb large housing affordability programs which make mortgages more accessible to lower income families, but at the same time distort free market dynamics.  This would likely put downward pressure on home prices.

Challenges Lurk in the Economy (link)

“The U.S. home ownership rate is near a 50-year low, and the average debt load for college students is rising.”

The Confidence Illusion

There’s a lot of certainty and confidence going on.  Investors are feeling much more confident, the fed is feeling much more confident, consumers are feeling much more confident, etc.  But should we trust them?  Caution would be the prudent advice.

The article, “Don’t Let Others Sway You When Making Investment Decisions” (link), points out that we can be heavily influenced by people with an intense belief in ignorant views.

“We’re biologically equipped with the potential to allow more-confident people to have greater sway over our own beliefs,”

“In a paper published in 2000, Prof. Shiller showed that confidence varies, often going up after the market rises and falling after it goes down.  The confidence of individual investors rose 4% in July 2008, for instance, right before the market got sucked into the black hole of the financial crisis.

“So you could visualize the stock market as a poltergeist or hobgoblin who takes a twisted delight in play pranks on the expectations of the investing public.”

1. Treasury Yields Resume Ascent (link)

Janet Yellen is viewing things positively.

“In a speech Thursday at Stanford University, Ms. Yellen said she doesn’t see the U.S. economy at risk of overheating and doesn’t expect growth to pick up much soon,”

But be careful to give too much weight to her comments.  Remember that after the financial crisis, Alan Greenspan wrote:

“In the run-up to the crisis, the Federal Reserve Board’s sophisticated forecasting system did not foresee the major risks to the global economy.  Nor did the model developed by the IMF, which concluded as late as the spring of 2007 that “global economic risks [had] declined” since 2006 and that “the overall U.S. economy is holding up well…[and] the signs elsewhere are very encouraging.” (link)

Service Providers with High Fixed Costs

  1. For Shale Drillers, Rising Oil Prices Also Come With Rising Costs (link)

Interesting story for a case study:

During a dramatic drop in oil prices, oil & gas companies get a sort of mini-bailout by their service providers.  These service providers effectively absorb some of the losses from oil & gas companies, thereby shielding them and making the decline more manageable.

But the effect is a two-way street.  When oil price rebound, service providers are quick to raise prices and dampen the benefits of rising prices.

Why does this happen?

The service providers have high fixed costs.  Upon declining oil prices, oil & gas companies cut demand for their services.  Because service providers have high fixed costs, they will continue to provide services at a loss, sometimes just as long as their variable costs are covered.

I believe you could say that, to some extent, the fixed costs of your service providers or suppliers act as a shield in bad times.  They will/must lower their service fees,  thereby making the hard times more tolerable.

What should we learn from this?

1) We should look at service providers and suppliers and determine the level of their fixed costs and variable costs.

2) Oil & Gas companies should really position themselves better to take advantage of a decline in oil prices.

Before the decline in oil & gas prices, the whole industry had positioned themselves aggressively.  When the crash came, no company was in a position to exploit the lower costs offered by service providers.  Or buy oil assets at discounted prices.

Instead, they all waited for a rebound in prices to start working again, at which point, they completely missed out on compelling market opportunities.

The problem with that strategy is that it’s hard to do.  But as Charlie Munger says, “It takes character to sit there with..cash and do nothing. I didn’t get to where I am by going after mediocre opportunities.”

Government Corruption & Lee Kuan Yew’s Advice

  1. Scandal Rocks Samsung (link)

“(President Park Geun-hye) was impeached last month over allegations that her confidante, Choi Soon-sil, sought to shake down the country’s biggest conglomerates for donations in exchange for political favors.”

There’s just so much corruption being exposed in governments around the world right now.  If you’re interested in learning more about the roots of corruption and how to stop it, I suggest reading the chapter “Keeping the Government Clean” from Lee Kuan Yew’s book, “From Third World to First”.  Here are a few great quotes:

“Human ingenuity is infinite when translating power and discretion into personal gain.” – Lee Kuan Yew

“A precondition for an honest government is that candidates must not need large sums of money to get elected, or it must trigger off the cycle of corruption.  The bane of most countries in Asia has been the high cost of elections.  Having spent a lot to get elected, winners must recover their costs and accumulate funds for the next election.  The system is self-perpetuating.” – Lee Kuan Yew

The Best Investment Quote of All Time is from…Napoleon?

/ Richard Lewis / Leave a comment

Could the best investment quote of all time come from Napoleon?  Quite possibly.  It was in the unlikely place of Napoleon Bonaparte’s personal diary that I found one of the best investment passages I’ve read.  Bursting with investing wisdom, it would be understandable to mistake Napoleon for Warren Buffett.  Although he’s writing about the art of war, the insights apply to investing just as well.

Interpretation

Below I dissect Napoleon’s journal entry to ascertain its valuable investing insights.

Importance of mathematics & probabilities:

To be a good general a man must know mathematics; it is of daily help in straightening one’s ideas.  Perhaps I owe my success to my mathematical conceptions

Beware of forecasts.  Buffett & Munger don’t invest in a company if they can’t see its strength displayed through history:

a general must never imagine things, that is the most fatal of all.

Eliminate psychological biases & crude heuristics which skew one’s perception of reality:

My great talent, the thing that marks me most, is that I see things clearly;

Identify the main issues and ask the right questions:

it is the same with my eloquence, for I can distinguish what is essential in a question from every angle.

Practice Bayesian updating:

The great art in battle is to change the line of operations during the course of the engagement; that is an idea of my own, and quite new.

Keep it simple. Stick to the fundamentals and common sense: 

The art of war does not require complicated maneuvers; the simplest are the best and common sense is fundamental.  From which one might wonder how it is generals make blunders; it is because they try to be clever.  The most difficult thing is to guess the enemy’s plan, to sift the truth from all the reports that come in.  The rest merely requires common sense;

Stay curious.  Do a lot of reading & research lots of companies.  Eventually you’ll come across a good idea: 

it’s like a boxing match, the more you punch the better it is.

Know how to read financial statements: 

It is also necessary to read the map well.”

“La victoire appartient aux plus persévérants.”

Investment Lessons from a Master Sushi Chef

/ Richard Lewis / Leave a comment

The best investment book I read this year didn’t come from a Wall Street whiz or hot shot finance professor, rather it came from Jiro Ono, a Master Sushi Chef. Yes, “the Jiro”, the one from the acclaimed documentary “Jiro Dreams of Sushi.”

While in Japan this past September I picked up his book titled “Jiro Philophosy” and was quite surprised. Unlike most investment books, Jiro doesn’t talk about investing at all. In fact, it isn’t even an investment book. Rather Jiro Philosophy simply describes Jiro’s personal work-ethic.

2016-12-17-19-25-01As I read this book, I quickly came to realize just how closely Jiro’s philosophy mirrors that of Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Ben Graham. It was quite surprising to see that the same principles which lead to mastery in Sushi can also lead to mastery in investing.

As a result, I have distilled the book “Jiro Philosophy” down to its 12 core principles and relate each one to the investment philosophy of Buffett, Munger, and Graham.

1. Stick to the fundamentals. Stay grounded.

Jiro

“If you stray from the fundamentals – say, trying to set yourself apart from other chefs – you will completely stray off track.  I believe that by adhering to the fundamentals and continuously striving to create delicious flavors, you will be able to be innovative.”

“If you continue to do things the right way, it’s a given that your sushi will turn out delicious.” 

Investing

stick-to-the-fundamentalsMarket manias and bubbles all have two things in common;  an abandonment of fundamental investment principles and an endless series of rationalizations.

Ben Graham understood the immense rationalization power of markets very well.  He experienced it first hand during the lead up to the great depression.  It was his understanding that as markets move higher, investors don’t become more reserved, but rather they invent knew valuation metrics to justify paying any price whatsoever.  As been Graham observed, “We can find no evidence that…investors as a class have sold their holdings because PE ratios were too high.”

Consequently, Ben Graham developed an immutable investment philosophy based on strict fundamental analysis to keep investors from “completely straying off track”.  And much like Jiro Ono, investors who have stuck to Ben Graham’s fundamentals of investing have delivered “delicious” results.

With this, I’m reminded of Lou Manheim ‘s advice to Bud Fox in the movie Wall Street, “Stick to the fundamentals…good things, sometimes take time.”

2. Gain Mastery.

Jiro

“You’ve got to master some skills to reach the next stage.”

“You won’t advance to the next level all on your own.  You need to train properly up to a certain point.  In the case of Jiro, after a decade of training, a craftsman will have mastered everything from preparation to making sushi.  He will be ready to strike out on his own.”

Investing

Warren Buffett pursued and achieved mastery over Ben Graham’s investment philosophy before advancing to the next level.  Warren’s path to mastery took on the following steps:

  • Discovered Ben Graham’s book “The Intelligent Investor” at the age of 19.
  • Read Graham’s 700+ page book, Securities Analysis, at least 12 times.  
  • Attended Columbia so that he could study under Ben Graham.
  • Worked for Ben Graham at his investment fund.
  • Invested using Ben Graham’s investment principles at the Buffett Partnership.

3. Put Knowledge into Practice.

Jiro

“People will teach you new things and ideas, but if you don’t try them out you will not change.”

“No matter how good the teaching, unless you actually put it into practice, you won’t be able to progress.  You will only have the knowledge.  People passionate about their work are always trying to improve upon what they’ve made.  It’s enjoyable and rewarding.”

“Because of this, we can keep trying new things every day.”

Investing

Throughout his life, Warren Buffett has shown an amazing willingness and ability to put knowledge into practice.   This includes applying the teachings of Ben Graham as well as the four hour educational interview he had with GEICO executive Lorimar Davidson in 1950.

Much of Warren’s success simply boils down to seeking out the best knowledge and putting it into practice.  Warren recommends you do the same thing:

“You need to fill your mind with various competing thoughts and decide which make sense. Then you have to jump in the water – take a small amount of money and do it yourself. Investing on paper is like reading a romance novel vs. doing something else. You’ll soon find out whether you like it. The earlier you start, the better.”

4. Improve upon what you’re taught.  Otherwise you will always be an apprentice.

Jiro

“Just doing as you’re taught is the same as being an apprentice.  I tell my young apprentices that they should think about how to achieve good flavor on their own, improve it and then experiment.  I always tell them if they don’t, they will be apprentices for life.”

Investing

Although Warren Buffett began his career as Ben Graham’s apprentice, he did not simply stick to his teaching.  Rather he modified and improved upon Graham’s teachings over time.  As Charlie Munger describes it:

“If we’d stayed with the classic Graham, the way Ben Graham did it, we would never have had the record we have. And that’s because Graham wasn’t trying to do what we did.”

5. Practice Beginner’s Mind. (Shoshin)

Shoshin (初心) is a concept in Zen Buddhism meaning “beginner’s mind“. It refers to having an attitude of openness, eagerness, and lack of preconceptions when studying a subject, even when studying at an advanced level, just as a beginner in that subject would. (Wikipedia)

Jiro

screen-shot-12-17-16-at-07-37-pm“That said, once they’ve become independent they should still pursue improvement just like an apprentice.”

“Feeling you can still evolve is important.”

Investing

Both Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are enthusiastic learners who enjoy the process.  In fact, Charlie has said that he and Buffett are “dissatisfied with what they know.”  As a result, they are always seeking to learn, adapt, and evolve.

Charlie further explains the importance of this mindset,

“Warren Buffett has become one hell of a lot better investor since the day I met him, and so have I. If we had been frozen at any given stage, with the knowledge we had, the record would have been much worse than it is. So the game is to keep learning, and I don’t think people are going to keep learning who don’t like the learning process.”

6. The way you do the small things reflects how you do the big things.

Jiro

Through Jiro’s Philosophy, he stresses the importance of the small things.  From cleanliness, to hot towels, to the preparation process, rice, etc.  All the smallest details are given the greatest care.  The way you do the small things reflects how you do the big things.

Investing

Likewise, Buffett has a keen eye for detail as displayed by the following two stories:

Story 1:

Buffett also liked Cathy’s attention to detail.  “When I asked her on the phone how many employees she had, she replied ‘504.’  I love this,” said Buffett.  “Not ‘about 500.’ I think she has 505 now and is doing considerably more business.  She won’t be happy until she has 100 percent market share.”  (From the book “The Women of Berkshire Hathaway: Lessons from Warren Buffett’s Female CEOs”)

Story 2:

The following is an excerpt from the Q&A session at the 2016 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting:

Warren Buffett: Yes, sloppy thinking in one area probably indicates there may well be sloppy thinking elsewhere. I have been a director of 19 public corporations. I’ve seen some very sloppy operations and I’ve seen a few really outstanding business operators, and there’s a huge difference. If you have a wonderful business, you can get away with being sloppy. We could be wasting a billion Dollars a year, at Berkshire, you know $640m after tax, that would be four percent of earnings, and maybe you wouldn’t notice it….

Charlie Munger: I would.

Warren Buffett: Charlie would notice it… It’s the really prosperous companies that well….the classic case were the tobacco companies many years ago. They went off into this thing and that thing, and it was practically play money because it was so easy to make. It didn’t require good management, and they took advantage of that fact. You can read about some of that in ‘Barbarians of the Gate’.

7. Listen to good advice.

Jiro

“I take customers’ advice when it makes sense.”

“Even when you think you are right often that’s not the case.  No matter what kind of business you are in, if you only work in an inflexible way, you won’t find success.”

“If (a customer’s advice) makes sense, I will adopt it, otherwise I will never evolve.”

Investing

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have exhibited an open mind and willingness to listen to good advice throughout their careers.  In fact, if it weren’t for some timely advice they might not have bought See’s Candies.  As Charlie Munger recounts,

“[Munger’s friend] Ira Marshall said you guys are crazy — there are some things you should pay up for, like quality businesses and people. You are underestimating quality. We listened to the criticism and changed our mind. This is a good lesson for anyone: the ability to take criticism constructively and learn from it. If you take the indirect lessons we learned from See’s, you could say Berkshire was built on constructive criticism.”

8. Preserve your main asset…You.

Jiro

screen-shot-12-17-16-at-07-50-pmIn his 40’s, Jiro recognized that his most critical asset as a Sushi Chef was the sensitivity in his finger tips.  As a result, he began wearing gloves in order to preserve the long-term integrity of his hands.  

This might seem like a mildly trivial matter, but for anybody looking to achieve and maintain success in their profession, follow Jiro’s example: Identify the physical or mental attribute that is necessary for success in your field and take measures to preserve it.

Investing

Warren Buffett identifies the most important trait of an investor as “emotional stability”.  As Warren explains,

“To be a successful investor, you don’t need to understand higher math or law. It’s simple, but not easy. You do have to have an emotional stability that will take you through almost anything. If you have 150 IQ, sell 30 points to someone else. You need to be smart, but not a genius. What’s most important is inner peace; you have to be able to think for yourself. It’s not a complicated game.”

Similar to Jiro’s practice of wearing gloves to protect his hands, here are some routines and strategies which Buffett uses to maintain emotional stability, inner peace, and independent thought.

  • An alert and fresh mind: 
    • Warren gets good sleep and takes naps when necessary
    • He plays bridge many hours every week.
  • A temperament uncorrupted by outside influences:
    • He Lives in Omaha
    • Maintains a Clear Schedule
    • Keeps a quiet office where he can think.
  • Health:
    • “My diet, though far from standard, is somewhat better than usually portrayed. I have a wonderful doctor who nudges me in your direction every time I see him. All in all, I’ve enjoyed remarkably good health — largely because of genes, of course — but also, I think, because I enjoy life so much every day.”

Furthermore, Warren explains the importance of preserving and enhancing yourself through life:

“Imagine that you had a car and that was the only car you’d have for your entire lifetime. Of course, you’d care for it well, changing the oil more frequently than necessary, driving carefully, etc. Now, consider that you only have one mind and one body. Prepare them for life, care for them. You can enhance your mind over time. A person’s main asset is themselves, so preserve and enhance yourself.”

9. Be a craftsman. Pursue work to satisfaction.

Jiro

“Pursuing work to satisfaction is the pride of a craftsman.  No matter how time consuming, I will leave no task to others.  I will do them all myself until satisfied.  Even as I get older, I still do all the work, even if it’s bothersome.  I feel very pleased when I develop and create something from a new idea of my own.”

Investing

Likewise, Buffett takes pleasure in doing all the investment analysis himself.  He does not have a team of analysts working for him.

10. Be passionate about what you do.

Jiro

“People who love their work passionately want to continue working.  I’m no exception.  Although I’m 90 years old, I’d like to keep on going.  That’s why I don’t find investing time in my work troublesome.”

Investing

At 86 years old, Buffett still tap-dances to work.  He derives great enjoyment from researching different companies.  He compares it to researching different species of animals.

11. Adapt to changing circumstances.

Jiro

screen-shot-12-17-16-at-07-41-pm“Since all sushi toppings are changing, sushi craftsman must now factor this in when working out flavors.”

“The oceans are quickly changing.  For example, the season for katsuo (skipjack tuna) now starts six months later.  But we have to serve the best of what’s in season.  Fish and shellfish were tastier in the past and it is difficult to find their intense flavors.  The next generation of sushi chefs will face challenges in trying to find ways to bring out and enhance fish flavors.”

Investing

Likewise, in investing you cannot wish for something which doesn’t exist.  You must play the hand that you’re dealt.

When Warren Buffett started investing, he could find net-net investments everywhere.  But the investment ocean quickly changed and he had to adapt to the circumstances.  Over the years, Buffett has invested in a broad range of investment classes including, bonds, common equity, preferred stock, warrants, options, commodities, and special situations.  He doesn’t wish for something that doesn’t exist, rather he adapts himself to whatever asset is on sale below his intrinsic value.

At the same time, Warren will never abandon his core principles and rationalize new investments.  During the “Nifty 50” stock market, he declared that he couldn’t find any cheap stocks and refused to invest.  Later Buffett refused to invest in tech stocks during the tech boom of the 90’s.  In each case Warren has been rewarded for his patience and sticking to the fundamentals.

This leads to a crucial point.  Although you must adapt to changing environments, you must also remember to stay true to the fundamentals.  As it says in rule number 1, “If you stray from the fundamentals…you will completely stray off track.”

So remember: Adapt, but do not abandon.

12. It’s never too early to prepare

Jiro

“It’s never too early to prepare.  You can start preparation way in advance.”

Jiro began working at a local restaurant from the age of seven.

Investing

Likewise, Warren Buffett recalls his youthful experience: “By the age of 10, I’d read every book in the Omaha public library about investing, some twice.”

Furthermore, Buffett said he read the 10Ks of IBM for fifty years before ultimately making an investment in the company.  That’s fifty years of “preparation.”

Jiro Philosophy: Distilled

jiro-philosophy

Spend a lot of time Sitting & Thinking. Warren Buffett ‘demands’ it!

/ Richard Lewis / Leave a comment

Buffett ‘Demands’ It

The following quote is perhaps my favorite saying from Warren Buffett.  It’s a simple yet powerful formula that dictates most of his day.

I insist on a lot of time being spent, almost every day,  to just sit and think.  That is very uncommon in American business.  I read and think.  So I do more reading and thinking, and make less impulse decisions than most people in business.  I do it because I like this kind of life. – Warren Buffett

Read. Sit. Think.  It doesn’t get much more straightforward than that.   And yet, it’s easy to overlook this quote or simply take it as mere suggestion.  But the key word in his statement is ‘insist’.  That’s a far cry from an off-handed recommendation.  In fact, Websters dictionary defines ‘insist’ as, “to demand that something happen or that someone do something.”

In other words, Warren Buffett demands it.  He demands it!  For anyone looking to learn from the investing wisdom of Warren Buffett, this is a good place to start.

That’s why I made the picture below and hung it on my wall.  It’s a reminder every day that this isn’t a recommendation.  I must spend a lot of time reading and thinking.

Sit and Think
Sit and Think

Cloning and Greatness

There’s a second reason why I love this quote; it’s unoriginal.  In fact, you can trace the origins of this quote back through a long line of great men who unapologetically copied each other.

I like to imagine that Warren derived this insight from Ben Franklin, whom both he and Charlie Munger admire greatly.  A quote mirroring Warren’s is found in Poor Richard’s Almanac where Ben Franklin wrote;

Reading makes a full man, mediation a profound man, discourse a clear man. – Benjamin Franklin

But the wisdom copying machine doesn’t end there.  Ben Franklin openly admitted that most of his Poor Richard’s quotes were unoriginal.  His typically strategy was to rewrite classic wisdom and proverbs into catchy sayings.  In turn, Ben Franklin likely derived his famous quote from John Locke whose writings were a big part of Franklin’s self-education.   John Locke wrote;

Reading furnishes the mind only with materials of knowledge; it is thinking that makes what we read ours. – John Locke

Once again, John Locke likely derived this statement from influential thinkers he studied, such as Thomas Hobbes, Descartes, Cicero, Aristotle, and Plato.  All of whom wrote extensively on the importance of thinking and meditating.

There’s a distinct pattern to this.  Great men, copy the wisdom of great men who came before them.  Or as Charlie Munger puts it;

I believe in the discipline of mastering the best that other people have ever figured out. – Charlie Munger

This process is also known as “cloning”.   Warren is a Grandmaster at cloning.  In his life, Warren has notably;

  • Mastered the fundamental principles of value investing from Ben Graham.
  • Mastered the fundamentals of the insurance business from Lorimer Davidson.
  • Evolved as an investor by embracing the ideas of Charlie Munger and Phil Fisher.

Warren Buffett has an uncanny ability to learn the best ideas that already exist and adopt them completely into his own knowledge and philosophy.

This speaks volumes to the value of “cloning”.  As investors, we should endeavor to do the same and master the best of what Warren Buffett has learned.  We can start here.

Read. Sit. Think.